EIA Data Show U.S.-Canada Energy Trade Slid to $137 Billion in 2025 as Oil Prices Fell
An 11% drop in bilateral energy trade value was driven by crude oil prices more than volumes, leaving the physical relationship intact but dollar value diminished.
The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell by 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137 billion, EIA data released Wednesday (2026-07-29) showed, drawing on U.S. Census Bureau figures. The decline erased around $17 billion from one of the world's most integrated bilateral energy corridors — and lower crude oil prices did most of the damage.2
Crude oil accounts for 69% of total bilateral trade value, meaning oil's price trajectory in 2025 set the tone for the headline figure. The crude oil trade averaged $94.7 billion across the year, down 16% from 2024, according to the EIA data.2
The flow direction remains heavily asymmetric. U.S. energy imports from Canada totalled $111 billion in 2025 against $26 billion in U.S. energy exports to Canada — a ratio that underscores American refiners' structural reliance on Alberta heavy crude.2
Volume moves were smaller than the price-driven value decline suggests. U.S. crude oil imports from Canada averaged 3.9 million barrels per day in 2025, 4% below 2024. U.S. crude exports to Canada, smaller to begin with, averaged 383,000 barrels per day, down 2% year-on-year. Both figures are measured retreats, not breaks. Price, not physical throughput, drove the headline.2
One factor behind the volume dip was increased utilization of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, which routes Canadian crude to Pacific coast markets rather than south to U.S. refiners. TMX gave Canadian producers an alternative outlet for barrels that would otherwise have had one buyer, and its ramp-up pulled some volume away from southbound flows.2
Tariffs added friction. From March 6, 2025, Canada's energy exports to the United States carried a 10% levy, though crude oil qualifying under United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement preferences was potentially exempt. Despite that, the United States retained its position as the largest destination for Canadian crude — a function of pipeline infrastructure that has no near-term substitute on comparable scale. Geography beat policy, at least in 2025.2
What the annual data cannot cleanly separate is how much of the volume decline reflects TMX diversion toward Pacific buyers versus tariff-induced demand adjustment from U.S. refiners. Those are different signals. A TMX-driven shift is durable; a tariff-driven change could ease if trade terms shift. The 2025 numbers do not offer that granularity.2
Current crude prices sit well above where they ended June 2026. ICE Brent crude front-month was at $91.04 per barrel as of Sunday (2026-08-02), and NYMEX WTI front-month stood at $84.67 per barrel at the same date. Both benchmarks had posted a 20% monthly decline through June 2026 — WTI closed that month at $69.50 per barrel and Brent settled near $73 — before recovering.1
That June swoon is a reminder of how quickly crude prices can reshape the bilateral trade value figure without moving a single pipeline contract. If WTI averages closer to current levels through 2026, the annual U.S.-Canada trade total could rebound materially, even if Canadian crude volumes to the U.S. continue drifting lower as TMX captures more Pacific-bound barrels.1
The variable with the most uncertain trajectory is tariff policy. The 10% levy did not divert significant crude volumes in 2025, but its effect on trade value was real, compressing the dollar total alongside lower prices. Whether the USMCA exemption that shields some qualifying crude remains in place, and what happens to tariff levels more broadly, will shape both the physical volumes and the headline trade figure that follows.2