China's Q2 Crude Imports Fall 32% to Nine-Year Low as Hormuz Shock Reverses Record Buying
China averaged 8.1 million b/d of crude imports in Q2 2026, a 32% quarterly fall, with May-June volumes at their lowest since 2016.
Monthly data from China's General Administration of Customs show the country imported just 8.1 million barrels per day of crude oil in the second quarter of 2026, down 32% from the first quarter, the EIA reported on Friday (2026-07-31). In May and June, volumes dropped below 8.0 million b/d for the first time since 2016.7
China had averaged 11.5 million b/d over the prior five years. As recently as the second half of 2025, when crude prices were at their lowest since 2020, Chinese buyers were importing 12.0 million b/d, a pace sustained into February 2026 and underpinned by deliberate strategic stockpiling. The country posted a record 11.6 million b/d for the full year 2025. Then Strait of Hormuz disruptions hit, and the reversal came fast.6,7
Bloomberg reported that China's May imports landed at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million b/d, the lowest since October 2017. By June, shipments had fallen to roughly 40% of pre-conflict levels, The Hindu Business Line reported. Reuters noted that the combination of China's import cut and higher U.S. crude exports had wrong-footed market bulls who had pushed physical crude prices above $160 per barrel in the preceding weeks.4,6,3
The supplier breakdown shows where volumes collapsed. EIA data put the sharpest quarterly declines between Q1 and Q2 at Iraq, down 910,000 b/d; Russia, China's largest crude supplier, off 640,000 b/d; and the UAE, down 600,000 b/d. All three supply China primarily through Persian Gulf shipping lanes.7
Bloomberg reported that state-owned refinery run rates fell to multi-year lows as supply tightened. Throughput across China's refinery system dropped 2.2 million b/d in Q2 compared with Q1, though the import decline of 3.9 million b/d was larger, with strategic drawdowns absorbing the difference. Kayrros, the data firm, estimated China's observable inventories had grown by 110 million barrels since early February 2026, reaching a record 1.2 billion barrels by mid-May — reserves accumulated when China imported at record rates in 2025 at prices last seen in 2020.2,7,1
For global markets, demand destruction and supply disruption pulled in opposite directions simultaneously. EIA estimated record-high global inventory draws of 5.1 million b/d in Q2 2026, a figure the agency noted would have been larger still had demand not softened. Physical crude did not sustain early price spikes: ICE Brent front-month traded at $73.39/bbl on Wednesday (2026-06-24), down 4.79% on the session, per OilPrice.com. ICE Brent front-month closed Friday (2026-07-31) at $91.04/bbl.5,7
China's reduced buying also freed cargoes for others. The Hindu Business Line reported that the drop in Chinese purchases represents one of the largest single offsets to the supply shock, behind only Saudi Arabia's rerouting of its own flows and exceeding in scale the coordinated SPR releases from the United States, Europe, and Japan combined.6,4
The question for the second half of 2026 is how much of the demand contraction reverts once Hormuz traffic normalizes and how much reflects a more durable shift. Consultancy Rystad now expects China's gasoline demand to fall 6.6% against pre-war forecasts of 3.5%, with diesel projected 6.9% lower versus a prior estimate of 3.0%, The Hindu Business Line reported. Electric and hybrid vehicles reached a record 62% of new car sales in China in June. Beijing launched a formal trucking electrification plan the same month, targeting 80% electrification of busy short-haul routes by 2030. "The crisis has acted as a trigger," Rystad analyst Ye Lin told The Hindu Business Line.6
Some analysts have already moved to a structurally lower demand baseline. The Hindu Business Line cited forecasts that China's crude imports could settle 1-2 million b/d below pre-conflict levels on a lasting basis, a revision that would remove the largest single source of incremental growth from global oil demand for the foreseeable future.6
Standard Chartered commodity analysts noted in late June that Brent had found technical support near the 200-day moving average of $78.71/bbl, though formal timelines for Hormuz to resume normal shipping operations had not been announced as of that point, per OilPrice.com. Rystad's revised demand forecasts already embed structural electrification damage beyond the immediate supply shock; whether actual Chinese consumption data in coming months tracks above or below those projections will define how much of Q2's import collapse was crisis dislocation and how much was a new floor.5,6