EU ETS Weekly Auction Volumes to Drop 28% From September as Calendar Revision Leaves Annual Total Higher
EEX data show weekly EUA auction volumes will fall 28% from September, though the revised 2026 total of 484.4m is 3% above prior projections, limiting the supply signal.
The EU revised its ETS auction calendar late Thursday (2026-07-30), announcing cuts to weekly supply from September and publishing preliminary 2027 volumes alongside them. Both changes were flagged as unlikely to move prices, with market participants telling Montel on Friday (2026-07-31) that the revisions would have a muted impact.5
EEX data show that from September, total weekly auction volumes, including the fortnightly Polish tender, would reach 11.9m EUAs, 28% below what was previously scheduled. The weekly reduction looks sharp. But the annual picture works against a bullish reading: 484.4m EUAs are scheduled to be auctioned across 2026 in total, around 3% higher than the 467.8m EUAs previously planned. The revision reshuffles when supply arrives rather than reducing how much comes.5
ICE EUA Dec-rolling was trading at €80.53/tCO2 on Friday (2026-07-31). No sharp directional move followed Thursday's (2026-07-30) announcement, broadly in line with what market participants had told Montel to expect.5
The early release of preliminary 2027 volumes gives participants an unusual forward look at next year's supply path. But analysts had already revised their price views well before Thursday's (2026-07-30) announcement. In April 2026, Reuters reported that forecasters had significantly cut their EU ETS price projections for the following two years, citing uncertainty over proposed policy changes and future supply levels. A calendar change that lifts the 2026 annual total 3% above prior schedules is unlikely to undo that positioning.4,5
A benchmark update from mid-June (2026-06-16) adds a longer-dated pressure point. A committee of national government representatives updated the ETS free-allowance benchmarks governing how much industry receives at no cost through 2030. Analysts told Montel at that time the revision would loosen the EU ETS market balance and press prices lower. Thursday's (2026-07-30) auction calendar changes do nothing to offset that directional signal.3
Poland's fortnightly tender is folded into the 11.9m EUA weekly figure that EEX will apply from September. The country's presence in the auction schedule carries a separate legal complication. The European Commission filed suit against Poland and Spain at the Court of Justice of the EU, with the Commission notice dated Thursday (2026-06-04), citing failures to fully transpose ETS legislative updates into national law. The case is at an early stage and its effect, if any, on Poland's auction obligations in the revised schedule has not been established.1
A ceiling on REPowerEU supply adds a variable that sits outside the regular auction calendar. EEX has confirmed, via its CEO, that the exchange will stop auctioning carbon allowances earmarked for the REPowerEU programme as soon as the €20 billion fundraising target is reached. The timing is price-contingent: the ceiling arrives faster when EUA prices are elevated, slower if they soften, and no date has been fixed.2
For participants with short-dated exposure to ICE EUA Dec-rolling, the 28% weekly step-down from September is the most immediate number in Thursday's (2026-07-30) revision. Still, with the 2026 annual total edging higher and the June (2026-06-16) benchmark update reinforcing the April 2026 forecast downgrades, there is no clean supply-tightening signal to trade. The pace at which the REPowerEU ceiling is approached and any development in the Poland compliance proceedings are the next concrete reference points.5,3,4,2,1