German Baseload Surges Toward 2022 Levels as Gas Overtakes Mild Weather Case
A Montel poll says German baseload could challenge energy-crisis peak prices even as a mild, wet autumn forecast undermines the standard seasonal bull case.
German baseload power front-month closed at €165.43/MWh on Thursday (2026-09-10), a 2.23% gain on the day, as ICE Endex TTF front-month jumped 3.71% to €82.22/MWh. A Montel poll found that German baseload could extend toward levels last seen in 2022's energy crisis — a reading made more striking by a near-term forecast that is mild and wet, conditions that normally suppress prices by boosting hydro output and cooling heating loads.3
The poll's bullish direction runs through gas. In the week of 2026-05-18, Montel reported that analysts expected German Q2 spot prices to surge 17% year on year, driven by gas forecast to average EUR 46.35/MWh, up 40% from Q2 2025.1 ICE Endex TTF settling at €82.22/MWh on Thursday (2026-09-10) puts gas prices well above those earlier projections, sustaining an elevated floor for gas-fired generation costs and, by extension, for baseload clearing prices.1
Renewables complicate the bull case without dismissing it. Industry bodies ZSW and BDEW reported on Wednesday (2026-07-01) that renewable energy accounted for a record 58% of Germany's electricity consumption in the first half of 2026, up from 55.8% a year earlier.4 Wind power generation jumped 27% in the first quarter of 2026 from the same quarter of 2025, aided by better wind speeds and around 5 GW of turbine capacity added in 2025.4 Germany installed 8.3 GW of new solar capacity and 2.5 GW of onshore wind in the first half of 2026 alone, both ahead of last year's pace.4
But hydro is the variable that undercuts the wet-weather optimism. Despite the mild outlook, hydropower generation fell 7.7% in H1 2026 from a year earlier because of reduced rainfall, ZSW and BDEW data showed.4 A wet forecast that fails to translate into reservoir fill leaves wind and solar doing all the heavy lifting through Q4. When wind speeds fall or cloud cover thickens, baseload prices have little cushion.
German power exports signal tighter supply conditions independently of weather. By 15 April (2026-04-15), Germany had exported just 2.6 TWh, the Expert Council on Climate told Montel, calling the figure "noticeably low."2 The Environment Agency had projected full-year 2026 exports of 29 TWh, rising to a peak of 46 TWh in 2029.2 A grid absorbing domestically what it once exported points to supply conditions tighter than the renewable build-out pace alone would suggest.
Higher German baseload prices carry direct implications for the European power complex. When thermal generation stays expensive and run hours increase, demand for ICE EUA Dec-rolling contracts rises, pushing French import costs higher as cross-border flows tighten.3
Contrarian readings exist. The poll's bullish lean, reflected in a 58% directional weighting, sits against bearish signals tied to infrastructure constraints, supply adequacy, and weather, each scored at moderate confidence.2 If ICE Endex TTF softens from Thursday's (2026-09-10) close and autumn winds hold above seasonal norms, the case for 2022-comparable prices loses its footing quickly.
German baseload Q+1 stood at €174.09/MWh and the day-ahead at €169.27/MWh on Thursday (2026-09-10), both pricing in considerable supply pressure.3 The immediate test is whether ICE Endex TTF holds Thursday's (2026-09-10) levels through the shoulder season, or whether the wet autumn forecast translates into actual hydro megawatts rather than remaining a model projection.4