Russia Locks Diesel and Gasoline Exports Through January 2027 as Refinery Damage Mounts
Moscow reversed course within days of pledging to restore diesel exports, extending the ban six months as Goldman Sachs estimates July volumes collapsed by 35%.
Russia extended its restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports through January 31, 2027, oilprice.com reported on Thursday (2026-07-30), reversing a commitment made just five days earlier that the ban would be lifted once its domestic fuel market stabilised. It has not stabilised.7
Goldman Sachs estimates global diesel exports fell 35% in July, a drop equivalent to roughly 2.6 million barrels per day, while total refinery throughput declined 6.5 million barrels per day from a year earlier. Both figures point to damage deep enough that Moscow could not credibly let export flows resume without aggravating domestic shortages.7
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure explain much of that damage. Ukrainian drones have hit more than 16 major Russian refineries and fuel terminals, knocking out more than 30% of Russia's oil refining capacity, oilprice.com reported on July 8 (2026-07-08). At least four strikes hit the ELOU-AVT-11 primary crude processing unit at one facility alone, a unit that accounts for up to 40% of that plant's total output.6
Russian crude-processing rates averaged 4.32 million barrels per day in the first ten days of June (2026-06-10), the lowest in 20 years, EA Analytics found. Further strikes arrived later in the month, and throughput showed no sign of recovering before the July extension decision.3
Reuters estimated the drone campaign had reduced Russian refining capacity by 700,000 barrels per day, a more conservative figure than oilprice.com's but still substantial. Drones struck the Antipinsky refinery in Tyumen, western Siberia, on at least two occasions around June 20 (2026-06-20); that plant converts around 160,000 barrels of oil into fuel each day when running normally.4
The cumulative damage has left Russia running an estimated 20% shortfall in domestic gasoline production, and the government plans to import up to 400,000 tonnes of fuel per month from neighboring countries to cover the gap, oilprice.com reported.6 Putin acknowledged on June 29 (2026-06-29) that fuel supply problems persist, including queues at petrol stations — an admission the Kremlin would have preferred to avoid.5
Ukraine's Fire Point FP-1 drones, which account for approximately 60% of deep strikes on Russian territory, can reach targets 1,500 kilometres inside Russia's borders, the Economist reported. The Ryazan refinery, 200 kilometres from Moscow and capable of 340,000 barrels per day under normal operation, is among the plants affected.1
In the futures market, ULSD heating oil front-month gained 0.70% to $4.32 per gallon as of Wednesday (2026-07-29), while RBOB gasoline front-month fell 5.04% to $3.20 per gallon in the same session. The split suggests traders are pricing Russian supply tightness into middle distillates while reading softer demand signals in gasoline. ICE Brent crude front-month held at $90.15 per barrel as of Wednesday (2026-07-29), up 0.72%.
The disruption has moved beyond Russia's borders. The UK eased sanctions on Russian diesel and jet fuel in May (2026-05-25), a measure Energy Voice reported reflected how thin supply alternatives had become. The US supplied 35% of UK diesel imports in 2024, but American politicians are weighing export restrictions of their own as domestic fuel prices rise — a development that would tighten British supply further without any resolution from Moscow.2
Actual capacity loss remains contested. Reuters estimated around 17% of Russian refining capacity had been at least temporarily shut; unconfirmed reports cited by the Economist put the affected share as high as 40%, with around 20% offline at any given time.1 Until that range narrows — and until drone strike tempo either eases or Ukraine exhausts viable targets — the January 2027 endpoint is a political date more than an operational one, and diesel traders will want evidence of genuine throughput recovery before they treat it as a hard floor.