Mitsui Chases LNG Equity as Russian Pipeline Gas Erodes China's Spot Demand
China's LNG imports fell 8.9 million tonnes in 2025 as Russian pipeline supply grew, complicating the long-term case for Mitsui's data-centre power strategy.
China's liquefied natural gas imports fell by 8.9 million tonnes in the 2025 calendar year to 69.77 million tonnes, the International Gas Union reported on Sunday (2026-07-19), the largest single-country volume decline globally. The drop was driven by expanded Russian pipeline deliveries through the Power of Siberia 1 route and rising domestic production, per IGU's annual World LNG Report 2026. India's imports contracted 1.5 million tonnes to 24.60 million tonnes over the same period.5
JKM spot LNG held at $21.32 per million British thermal units on Wednesday (2026-07-29), unchanged on the session. A price that firm, against falling Chinese and Indian volumes, points to residual tightness elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific basin — and it speaks to why Mitsui & Co.'s chief executive has been seeking new equity stakes and offtake deals across the Middle East, the United States and Australia, positioning the Japanese trading house for power demand it expects AI data centres to generate over the next decade, Rigzone reported on Sunday (2026-05-31).4
Asia Pacific as a whole remained the world's largest LNG-importing region in 2025, with volumes rising 3.6 million tonnes to 168.7 million tonnes, IGU data show. But imports into Asia fell 9.2 million tonnes to 108.7 million tonnes, pulled lower by China and India and also by weaker purchases from emerging buyers including Thailand and Pakistan.5
China's decline traces to Russian supply, and the pipeline mathematics may worsen. The IGU attributed the 2025 volume fall to mild early-year seasonal demand, rising domestic gas output, and higher throughput through Power of Siberia 1. On Tuesday (2026-05-19), Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation signed a legally binding memorandum to build Power of Siberia 2, a 2,600-kilometre pipeline from Russia's Yamal Peninsula to northern China via eastern Mongolia with a targeted annual capacity of 50 billion cubic metres, according to Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, which published its analysis of the deal in May 2026.1,2,5
If PoS-2 reaches full flow, China could be importing more than 100 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually after 2030, representing more than one-fifth of its projected demand at that point, CSIS analysis indicated. In 2024, China imported 71 billion cubic metres of Russian pipeline gas alongside 79 million metric tonnes of LNG, equivalent to 107 billion cubic metres.1
Each additional billion cubic metres of Russian gas flowing east through a pipeline is a cargo that no longer crosses the ocean. Mitsui's wager is that AI-driven electricity demand grows fast enough to offset that displacement. The company already holds a contract with Venture Global for 1 million tonnes of LNG annually and an equity stake in Abu Dhabi's Ruwais LNG project, scheduled to begin production in 2028, Oilprice.com reported on Friday (2026-05-29). The search for further upstream equity is the stated next step.3
India offers a partial counterweight. Despite the 1.5 million tonne import decline, India added 7.1 million tonnes per annum of regasification capacity in 2025, commissioning the Chhara LNG terminal at 5 mtpa and completing the Dabhol breakwater expansion at 2.1 mtpa, which lifted total national capacity to 52.5 mtpa across eight terminals and moved India past Spain to become the fourth-largest regasification market globally, per IGU data.5 More infrastructure without matching import volumes indicates Indian buyers are positioning for heavier purchases when LNG economics shift in their favour.
The broader European gas market ran in the other direction on Thursday (2026-07-30). ICE Endex TTF front-month gas dropped 3.90 percent to €58.16 per megawatt hour, a softening that reflects near-term European supply balances. TTF influences Asian LNG pricing primarily through the Atlantic Basin arbitrage; the day's move carries limited bearing on where JKM trades over the months ahead.
The PoS-2 construction timeline is what Mitsui's counterparties will be watching most closely. Power of Siberia 1 required roughly a decade of negotiation before the $400 billion agreement was signed in May 2014, with pricing the principal sticking point throughout. Russia now holds fewer gas export alternatives than it did before European markets closed, giving Beijing greater leverage over terms. If PoS-2 clears its pricing hurdle quickly, Chinese LNG spot demand faces sustained pipeline competition well before 2030. If negotiations drag as they did with PoS-1, the import window Mitsui is targeting may stay open longer than the current burst of Russian-pipeline enthusiasm implies.1