Ukraine Drone Strikes Hit Two Russia-Linked Tankers in the Black Sea
Strikes on Louise 1 and Banda add pressure to a corridor handling more than 20% of Russia's seaborne crude, as the Hormuz recovery remains partial.
Ukrainian naval drones struck the tankers Louise 1 and Banda in the Black Sea on Thursday (2026-07-16), the Security Service of Ukraine and the Navy confirmed, adding to a campaign targeting vessels that move Russian crude through a waterway handling more than 20% of the country's total seaborne oil exports.4
The strikes arrive while the tanker market is still absorbing a separate, longer-running disruption: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz that trapped vessels in the Persian Gulf for months. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $90.15 per barrel as of Wednesday (2026-07-29), with Urals crude at $76.94 per barrel, a spread reflecting both the Russian barrels' sanctions discount and the elevated cost of delivery through contested corridors.4,1
A tentative recovery in Hormuz traffic emerged around Monday (2026-06-23), with multiple tankers broadcasting their position and signalling their intention to pass through the strait, Oilprice.com reported. That followed a period of acute disruption: at the conflict's peak, roughly 9% of the world's non-sanctioned, compliant VLCC fleet had been stranded in the Persian Gulf, Clarkson Research Services data show.3,2
The first signs of physical relief came earlier. Three VLCCs crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday (2026-05-20) carrying 6 million barrels of Middle East crude toward Asian markets, LSEG and Kpler data showed, after more than two months at anchor in the Gulf. Among them was the Chinese-flagged Yuan Gui Yang, which had loaded 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude on February 27, and the South Korean-flagged Universal Winner, carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude loaded on March 4.1
Into this disrupted market, shipowners have been placing orders at a pace that has drawn direct comparisons to 2008. There are currently 262 supertankers on order at shipyards globally, each capable of hauling 2 million barrels of crude, according to Clarkson Research Services, surpassing the previous record from that year. A 10-year-old VLCC now costs around $115 million, also the highest since 2008, Clarkson data show.2
The 2008 comparison carries a warning. That ordering surge ended in a glut and a collapse in freight rates as new tonnage arrived into a market no longer supported by the conditions that justified the orders. Owners placing orders now are betting that geopolitical rerouting keeps ton-mile demand elevated long enough to absorb the supply. Clarkson noted that slashed cargo flows through Hormuz could dent earnings if sustained, particularly if the conflict ultimately suppresses long-run crude demand.2
The Black Sea strikes fit a different logic. Ukraine's stated aim is to degrade the shadow fleet, the network of older vessels operating outside Western insurance and compliance structures that has been central to Russian crude export volumes since sanctions took hold. Each vessel disabled reduces short-term export capacity and signals to other owners that the corridor carries real attrition risk.4
For the broader VLCC market, these pressures run in competing directions. Hormuz disruption lifted spot rates by stranding capacity and forcing longer voyages around alternative routes. But if Black Sea conditions worsen while the Hormuz recovery stays partial, the ton-mile demand underpinning 262 new supertanker orders starts looking thinner than recent rate levels suggested. Whether further strikes follow the Louise 1 and Banda will go some way to answering that.2,4,3