Markets Reprice AI Power Risk as Uranium Surges and Gas Supply Chains Draw Scrutiny
Bloomberg Surveillance flagged AI supply chain risks on July 29; uranium ETFs surged 5% the following session, as data centre power demand reprices across fuel markets.
On July 29 (2026-07-29), Bloomberg Surveillance noted that equity markets are waking up to the risks associated with the AI trade across its supply chain. The uranium ETF (URA) gained 5.16% on July 30 (2026-07-30) to $39.72, one of its sharpest single-session moves in recent months, as investors extended bets on nuclear baseload as the answer to data centre power needs.5
AI data centres require continuous, large-scale power that intermittent renewables struggle to deliver. That mismatch has pulled capital toward nuclear and gas-fired generation, and the equity moves along the supply chain have been substantial. Two companies in particular, one a storage provider and the other an industrial power equipment maker, illustrate how far the repositioning has gone, and where the stress is starting to show.2
Babcock & Wilcox, which makes industrial power generation equipment and has been pivoting toward AI data centre baseload, saw shares close at $14.54 as of May 21 (2026-05-21), up 129.34% year to date at that point. The headline driver was a $2.4 billion design-build contract with Base Electron for 1.2 gigawatts of natural gas-fired power, which pushed the company's backlog up 470% to $2.8 billion. Base Electron is also evaluating a further 1.2 GW option, and the broader global pipeline is described as exceeding $12 billion.2
The balance sheet complicates that growth picture. Stockholders' equity at Babcock & Wilcox stood at negative $131.5 million as of those May disclosures, and the company faces a 6.50% note refinancing due in 2026. Management guided 2026 core adjusted EBITDA to $70 million to $85 million, roughly 80% year-on-year growth excluding any data centre upside — solid guidance set against a capital structure with limited room for execution slippage.2
Fluence Energy, which sells battery storage systems and has been securing master supply agreements with major hyperscalers, also advanced sharply during May 2026 (2026-05-01 to 2026-05-31) on record backlog disclosures. Management reaffirmed a 2026 revenue target of $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion, with around 85% of the midpoint already contracted. But a secondary offering of 20 million Class A shares priced at around $21.00 in mid-May (2026-05-15) triggered immediate price volatility and raised concerns about institutional exits. Persistent net losses remain a constraint. Analysts projected a strong third quarter as deferred Q2 shipments were set to be recognised, though those projections were formed two months ago and conditions may have shifted since.1
The fuel backdrop matters to this trade. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas ended July 29 (2026-07-29) at $2.65/MMBtu, down 0.38% on the session, a price that supports the economics of gas-fired AI baseload. Supply remains ample, though. Working gas in storage had fallen by only 52 billion cubic feet in the week of May 11 (2026-05-11), well below the five-year average weekly withdrawal of 168 Bcf, leaving inventories 141 Bcf above year-ago levels. Low prices make gas baseload projects attractive now, but sustained oversupply can dampen upstream investment in ways that bite when demand surges.3
The emissions accounting for AI-linked gas demand is also drawing attention. A report published in June (2026-06-16) found that Japan's resales of US LNG across Asia generate carbon emissions equivalent to roughly 17 coal plants operating for a year, with the trade spanning nine regional markets. As AI infrastructure drives US gas exports higher, that footprint runs deeper into supply chains than most buyers have yet quantified.4
European gas moved on separate dynamics. ICE Endex TTF front-month fell 3.90% on July 30 (2026-07-30) to €58.16/MWh, while THE M+1 dropped 3.85% to €58.59/MWh. Neither move tracks US data centre demand; both reflect European supply and weather fundamentals. But the divergence, with uranium bid up sharply while European gas sells off on the same session, captures the ambiguity in the AI energy thesis: some power sources are being treated as indispensable, while others remain in surplus. [live prices]
Babcock & Wilcox's note refinancing due this year is the most immediate test of whether the AI power buildout can hold its most leveraged beneficiaries together.2