URA Falls 3% as Nuclear Equities Shed Gains Despite Accelerating AI Power Demand
The Global X Uranium ETF dropped to $38.95 on Wednesday while hyperscaler capital commitments and federal electricity projections reinforce nuclear power's central role in U.S. grid buildout.
The Global X Uranium ETF fell 3.35% to $38.95 on Wednesday (2026-07-29), adding to a stretch of losses that has eroded much of the sector's earlier advance without visibly weakening the power demand argument that drove it higher.
The divergence has been building since spring. By mid-June 2026 (2026-06-12), Constellation Energy shares had fallen to $242.30, down 19% over the prior month and 31% year to date, while Cameco had shed roughly 20% over the same period, according to market reports. Both sit at the center of the U.S. nuclear investment case, with Constellation as the country's largest reactor fleet operator and Cameco as a principal uranium supplier.5
The demand picture has not changed shape. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet collectively guided to more than $710 billion in combined 2026 capital expenditure, much of it targeting data center buildout. The Department of Energy projects data centers will consume up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory put the range at 6.7% to 12% of total annual U.S. electricity consumption. The EIA, in its June 2026 (2026-06-01) outlook, flagged that residential electricity prices are expected to rise 5% in 2026, adding regulatory pressure toward firm, dispatchable generation.5,4
Constellation's first-quarter FY2026 results provided some insulation from the stock's slide. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.74, against a $2.60 consensus estimate, with revenue of $11.122 billion beating expectations by 28% and growing 64% year over year. Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted operating EPS guidance of $11.00 to $12.00 and guided base EPS growth of more than 20% annually through 2029. Long-term power purchase agreements are already in place with Microsoft, Meta and CyrusOne, including a 380 MW deal signed at Freestone in February 2026 with exclusivity on an additional 380 MW.5
But the balance sheet and operational metrics carry real overhang. Long-term debt rose to $17.5 billion following the Calpine acquisition, and the nuclear fleet's capacity factor slipped to 92% from 94% year over year. The PJM Reliability Backstop Procurement framework, designed to allow bilateral data center contracting, does not take effect until March 2027. That gap leaves several quarters of limited contracted revenue visibility at a time when integration execution is still being assessed by the market.5
The Uranium & Nuclear ETF (URAN), in a late-May 2026 (2026-05-28) analysis, offered distinct exposure to Japanese and Korean reactor builders at lower cost than competing vehicles. That coverage adds a trade-policy dimension. The IMF cut South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 1% from 2% on April 22nd (2026-04-22), and the U.S. announced, then suspended for 90 days, reciprocal tariffs of 25% on Korean goods and 24% on Japanese. Sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminium and automobiles came into effect in March and April 2026. Korean and Japanese reactor component suppliers sit within that tariff perimeter.3,1
For uranium miners, the upstream picture had been more supportive. URA tracked miners up 62% over the 12 months to June 2026 (2026-06-01) on upstream supply constraints. The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ), targeting reactor operators and small modular reactor developers, gained 42% over the same period. The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR) returned 133% over five years to June 2026, though its blended basket, covering utilities, miners and services, limits single-name upside in a concentrated sector rally.4,5
The IEA estimated in May 2026 (2026-05-28) that more than 70 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity would come online by the mid-2030s — one of the strongest pipelines in roughly 30 years. The agency noted that capacity will not arrive in time to address near-term data center power needs. CEO Joe Dominguez, in Constellation's Q1 2026 commentary, stated that "America needs reliable, clean power and Constellation is built to meet this demand." The stock's 31% year-to-date decline through mid-June 2026 (2026-06-12) shows the market pricing the distance between that positioning and deliverable cash flow.2,5
With the PJM bilateral contracting window set to open in March 2027, the pace of additional hyperscaler PPAs and progress on the Calpine integration are the most concrete near-term signals of when the equity drawdown might stabilize.5