Germany's 4.5 GW Power Tender Set to Be Oversubscribed, Montel Poll Shows
Strong developer appetite for Germany's first capacity market round signals new gas-fired generation ahead, with front-month German baseload at €132.64/MWh.
Germany's inaugural 4.5 gigawatt power capacity tender, scheduled to open on 8 September, is likely to draw more bids than available slots, according to a Montel poll of power companies published on Thursday (2026-07-23) and conducted during the week of 2026-07-20. Leag, the eastern Germany-based utility, was among the companies indicating the round would be oversubscribed.4
An oversubscribed first round signals that developers are prepared to build new generation at scale. If Germany's full 11 GW programme delivers close to schedule, domestic power supply will increase materially by the end of the decade, adding a sustained headwind to forward contracts. Front-month German baseload stood at €132.64/MWh at Friday's (2026-07-25) close; the construction timeline runs years beyond the current prompt, so the bearish pressure bears most directly on the forward curve rather than near-term delivery.4,3
The 11 GW programme was approved by the German cabinet on Wednesday (2026-05-20) and cleared the lower house of parliament by voice vote on Thursday (2026-07-09), Montel reported. The legislation must still pass the upper house before the 8 September tender proceeds on firm legal ground. If the upper house delays or amends the measure, the first round slips and the construction timeline shifts with it.2,3
Germany's Q+1 power contract stood at €146.72/MWh at Friday's (2026-07-25) close, well above the front-month at €132.64/MWh, with Cal+1 at €111.40/MWh — a curve that reflects near-term tightness while pricing some longer-dated relief. TTF front-month gas closed at €63.76/MWh on the same date. The spread between the Q+1 and Cal+1 contracts is the section of the forward curve most sensitive to how credible and fast the capacity programme looks from here. [live prices]
Gas-fired, hydrogen-ready plants take years to permit, finance and build. The 11 GW programme's most direct bearish effect on German baseload prices is a 2029-to-2031 story. Developers bidding into September's tender are making a multi-year bet that prices stay high enough to support project economics — and at €132.64/MWh for the front-month, the price environment is telling them the answer is yes.4,3
Analysts polled by Montel in May 2026 forecast Q2 2026 gas prices averaging EUR 46.35/MWh, up 40% year on year from Q2 2025. TTF front-month has since risen well above that figure, closing at €63.76/MWh on Friday (2026-07-25). The persistence of gas prices above those earlier projections reinforces the commercial logic behind developer interest in new dispatchable capacity.1
The September tender will not add a megawatt to the grid. But it will establish the clearing price and the committed volume, giving the market its first read on how the capacity programme translates into actual construction. A heavily oversubscribed round clears at a lower support price for developers; if that price is too thin to attract project finance, some awarded capacity never reaches a final investment decision, blunting the long-term bearish effect on forward prices.4,3
The upper house vote is the immediate obstacle. If the legislation passes, the 8 September tender proceeds on firm footing and developers move toward binding bids. If it stalls, the 4.5 GW first round delays, and the bearish signal the market has begun to price into the Cal+1 discount at €111.40/MWh loses its legislative foundation.3