Heatwaves Drive 6.59 GW Surge in European Gas-Fired Generation This Summer
Gas burn across Italy, Spain, France, Britain and Belgium has run roughly a third above recent summer norms, sustaining demand pressure that has kept ICE Endex TTF elevated.
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas rose 1.92% to €73.33/MWh on Monday (2026-09-07), extending gains tied to a summer of unusually heavy gas-fired power generation across western Europe. German front-month power settled at €153.45/MWh on Monday (2026-09-07), up 2.52% on the day.
Montel Analytics calculated the aggregate scale on Wednesday (2026-08-12): gas-fired output across Italy, Spain, France, Britain and Belgium averaged 6.59 GW above the comparable levels from the summers of 2024 and 2025. Italy and Spain each posted a 28% rise in gas generation. Across all five countries, gas burn ran roughly a third above recent summer norms, Montel reported.5
Nuclear curtailments in France, Europe's largest nuclear power supplier, drove a large share of that increase. EDF data showed the country would cut nuclear generation by 7.3 GW on Wednesday (2026-08-05), equal to 12% of total installed capacity, as at least the fifth extreme heat event of 2026 pushed river temperatures above safe limits for reactor cooling.4
The price response was swift. French day-ahead power rose 21.8% to €142.5/MWh on the morning of Tuesday (2026-08-11), per LSEG data cited by Reuters, with midday-peak curtailments expected to extend into the following day.4
France was not the only market affected. An extreme heatwave reaching 42°C pushed French and Spanish front-week power above €100/MWh ahead of the week of 2026-06-22, Montel reported analysts as saying, with further pressure expected into the following week.3
How often gas sets the clearing price differs sharply by country. Ember calculates gas plants determined the clearing price in 89% of Italian power market hours so far in 2026, with Italy averaging €142/MWh in March. Spain, with deeper renewable penetration, saw gas set the price in just 15% of hours over the same period, and averaged €59/MWh in March, according to Economist reporting.2
Solar cushioned the worst of the shortfall. Europe's panels produced 17% more electricity during the heat waves than seasonal norms, according to Ember, stabilizing afternoon grids as air conditioning loads surged. Battery systems extended that output into evening hours, when high overnight temperatures keep cooling demand elevated after solar production falls, Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe, noted.6
But photovoltaic generation is weather-dependent. When Saharan dust was projected to drift over southern Europe on Monday (2026-05-18) and Tuesday (2026-05-19), Italian solar output was forecast to fall 12-18%, equivalent to 20-35 GWh/day, with day-ahead Italian prices seen rising €4-15/MWh, analysts told Montel on Friday (2026-05-15). In a severe scenario with added cloud cover, Paolo Guerrieri, energy economist at the Paris School of International Affairs, put the solar shortfall above 20%, or 40-50 GWh/day.1
New capacity has been arriving fast. Europe installed 36 GWh of solar and battery systems in 2025, up 48% year-on-year, Canary Media reported. Yet this summer's data show that even rapid renewable growth cannot fully offset multi-gigawatt baseload losses when extreme heat persists for weeks.6
EDF's investment plans signal that France does not expect the underlying problem to ease quickly. The utility plans to spend over $10 billion adapting its nuclear and hydropower plants to warmer temperatures and lower river levels over the next 15 years, including upgrades to the reactor cooling water systems most exposed to summer heat, Canary Media reported.6
Hydro reservoir recovery across the Alps and Pyrenees stands as the main unresolved factor through the autumn shoulder season: drought conditions aggravated by this summer's heat remain unquantified in available data, and lingering deficits could sustain gas-fired dispatch well past the point where air conditioning demand fades. Italian day-ahead power (where gas sets the price in nine of ten market hours) and ICE Endex TTF front-month are the most direct read on how quickly the summer's elevated gas burn recedes.5,2