Enagas Calls Geopolitical Energy Volatility Structural as Hormuz Pressure Holds
Spain's gas TSO chief declared the disruption permanent on Wednesday as ICE Brent held near $97 and Iran retained its grip on the world's most-watched oil choke point.
The chief executive of Enagas, Spain's gas transmission system operator, said on Wednesday (2026-07-22) that geopolitical volatility affecting global energy markets "is no longer transitory but structural," telling Montel that the geopolitical order "is increasingly fragile and crises are" becoming the norm rather than the exception.7
That framing lands with ICE Brent crude front-month at $96.78 per barrel at Friday's (2026-07-25) last trade. The contract had already crossed $90 earlier in July as Iran War tensions intensified, a move the Kobeissi Letter reported on July 19 (2026-07-19). Nearly 20% of the world's oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, according to data cited by Cryptobriefing, and any sustained disruption there carries direct consequences for crude, LNG, and refined product markets globally.6
Iran's position over that waterway has become the central variable. A Poten & Partners executive told Montel that Iran is unlikely to forge a swift peace deal with the United States while its grip on the Strait continues to ripple through energy markets, arguing that Tehran has no real incentive to reopen the chokepoint under current conditions.2
Vessel seizures reinforced that view. Analysts told Montel on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that the energy market remained "fragile and uncertain" despite news the US-Iran ceasefire was being extended, with reports that Iranian forces had seized ships in the Strait. Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative, wrote in Foreign Policy on June 17 (2026-06-17) that the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's ceasefire had not relieved the constraints on Hormuz shipping.1,4
The LNG market has been slower to fully reprice than crude. Analysts told Montel on Thursday (2026-06-18) that the likelihood of Iran retaining some official control of the Strait as part of any eventual settlement was "sparking concern" across the LNG market and curtailing price losses. JKM Asian LNG was quoted at $22.00 per MMBtu at Friday's (2026-07-25) last trade, flat on the session.3
There was a moment in late June when the consensus shifted. A survey of analysts around June 30 (2026-06-30) produced the first downward revisions to 2026 oil price forecasts since the conflict began, the Economic Times reported, following five consecutive months of rising expectations, after what was described as a reopening of the Strait that reduced fears of prolonged supply disruption. But ICE Brent's current position near $97 suggests that relief was short-lived, or that the reopening was narrower than the initial read implied.5
The fallout extends beyond crude benchmarks. Analysts said on Wednesday (2026-07-22) that Hormuz tensions are already altering regional calculations around security, diplomacy, and alliances across Asia, OilPrice.com reported. European gas markets that rely on LNG routed through or priced against Middle East supply face the same persistent uncertainty — one that Enagas's CEO explicitly placed in a long-duration frame.8,7
ICE Endex TTF front-month settled at €63.76 per MWh at Thursday's (2026-07-24) close, up 3.01% on the session. THE M+1 was priced at €64.13 per MWh over the same period, also up nearly 3%. European gas markets are pricing the absence of a clean Hormuz resolution into the near-term curve. [live prices]
The Poten & Partners assessment — that Iran retains more to gain from maintaining control of the Strait than from releasing it — has not been contradicted by any development since May. Any concrete evidence of Iranian military withdrawal from seized vessels, or substantive progress in Washington-Tehran talks, would be the first signal that the Enagas CEO's permanent-volatility framing requires revision. Neither has appeared yet.2,7