JKM Benchmark Reaches $24 as TTF Posts 1.9% Gain on September 7
JKM reached $24.02/MMBtu and ICE Endex TTF rose 1.92% on September 7 as tight global supply pushes both benchmarks toward multi-year highs.
The Platts JKM benchmark for Asian LNG deliveries stood at $24.02 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as of Tuesday (2026-09-08), while the ICE Endex TTF front-month contract rose 1.92% to €73.33 per megawatt-hour on Monday (2026-09-07), extending a rally that resumed after a brief July retreat.
TTF's current level sits roughly 50% above the €48.97/MWh the contract struck on Friday (2026-07-10), when shipping data confirming LNG cargoes were still transiting the Strait of Hormuz pushed the benchmark 2.3% lower, briefly deflating supply-disruption anxiety. That ease proved short-lived. Two months of summer restocking demand, combined with elevated Asian buying, have pushed prices back above pre-summer levels.4
German day-ahead power tracked the gas move, rising 2.52% to €153.45/MWh on Monday (2026-09-07). THE M+1 settled at €74.50/MWh, up 1.75% on the day. At those levels, gas-fired generation is competitive with coal across much of continental Europe, supporting TTF spot demand even without a weather shock.
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was at $2.99/MMBtu early on Tuesday (2026-09-08). The contract gained 2.35% on Thursday (2026-08-27) to reach $2.968 and had risen 7.73% over the preceding seven days, driven by a tighter-than-expected domestic supply-demand balance, according to TradingKey.6
But storage data cuts against the bullish case on the U.S. side. Working gas in underground storage remained more than 6% above five-year historical averages as of Thursday (2026-08-27), giving bearish traders a concrete counterweight to weather-driven price support. A surplus of that size typically keeps front-month upside capped without a sustained heat or export catalyst.6
The EIA's 2026 Henry Hub price projection stands at around $3.80/MMBtu, roughly 13% below its previous forecast, according to ChAI data citing the agency. At $2.99 on Tuesday (2026-09-08), the front-month is nearly 80 cents short of that annual average. Sustained prices above $3 for the remainder of the year would be needed for the EIA's figure to hold, and the storage surplus makes that path narrow.2
Asian buyers face different constraints. JKM has nearly doubled from the $12.90/MMBtu that Reuters described as a seven-month high for September-delivery spot cargoes in August 2024, a level driven then by Russian supply concerns. The current $24.02 sits in a market where expanding U.S. LNG capacity and persistent northeast Asian import demand continue to compete for Atlantic cargoes.5
U.S. export volumes have held firm through the year's maintenance season. Weekly vessel departures reached 141 billion cubic feet around mid-May (week of 2026-05-11), up 26 Bcf week-on-week despite curtailments at several terminals.1 The NYMEX Henry Hub front-month settled at $2.96/MMBtu on Friday (2026-05-15), gaining 7.4% for that week, marking the early stages of the price recovery that has since carried the contract to within a cent of $3.1
European storage set the backdrop for summer restocking urgency. Gas Storage Europe's Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory data showed EU inventories at 48% of capacity on January 20 (2026-01-20), against a five-year seasonal average of 63%.3 That deficit entered buyers' calculations early in the year, accelerating TTF demand through spring and limiting how much July's Hormuz relief could anchor prices lower.
Whether TTF holds above €70/MWh through autumn depends in part on Hormuz shipping data and Russian pipeline flows. A disruption to either, or a run of warm European weather that slows restocking, could sharpen competition for swing cargoes between European and Asian buyers. U.S. terminal maintenance schedules in the coming weeks will be the first observable test.4,1