OPEC+ to Vote on Sixth Straight Output Hike on August 2 With Hormuz Exports Still Blocked
The group is expected to add another 188,000 b/d to September targets, though blocked Gulf export routes mean paper quotas remain disconnected from physical supply.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $96.02 per barrel on Friday (2026-07-24) as traders positioned ahead of OPEC+'s August 2 ministerial meeting, where the group is widely expected to approve another 188,000 barrel-per-day increase to September output targets — what would be the sixth consecutive monthly quota hike in a campaign to fully unwind the alliance's 2023 voluntary production cuts.5,6
The decision, if confirmed, will not shift physical balances materially on its own. The Strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed since the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated, and OPEC production has already collapsed below any quota line. OPEC figures show alliance output averaged just 33.19 million barrels per day in April, down from 42.77 million in February — a loss of nearly 9.6 million barrels per day in two months, driven entirely by export disruptions at Gulf terminals.3,6,4
The pattern has been consistent since spring. Seven core members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and allies — agreed on Sunday (2026-06-07) to raise July targets by 188,000 b/d, the fourth straight monthly increase. On Sunday (2026-07-05), the group confirmed the same increment for August. Each time, the stated rationale was identical: the cartel is gradually reversing the 1.65 million barrel-per-day voluntary cut agreed in 2023.4,6,2
Monthly hike sizes came down from 206,000 b/d in April and May to 188,000 b/d from June onward, adjusted to reflect the UAE's exit from the core group. After five such increases, the seven remaining core members still have approximately 379,000 barrels per day left to reintroduce before the 2023 cut is fully reversed. At the current pace, that unwind completes around October.6,1
But executing that plan requires exports to move. They have not. Analysts said quota decisions carry little meaning while the Hormuz route stays blocked. The strait carries a large share of seaborne crude from Gulf producers including Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia's eastern terminals, and some of those producers have seen exports fall sharply since the conflict escalated. After the June 7 meeting, one analyst told Channel News Asia that OPEC+ production increases mean very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.3,1,4
Saudi Arabia has not been passive. Financial Express reported on Monday (2026-07-06) that Riyadh slashed its official selling prices for Asia by the biggest margin in more than two decades, pushing crude back toward levels seen before the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran erupted in late February. The scale of that cut suggests Riyadh is willing to sacrifice margin to defend market position, at least on paper.7
Traders began discounting some easing of hostilities in early June. ICE Brent crude front-month shed ground to roughly $93 per barrel during the session on Friday (2026-06-05), as growing expectations that a fresh U.S.-Iran military confrontation had become less probable weighed on prices. By Friday (2026-07-24), the contract had recovered to $96.02 per barrel.3
The six-month production collapse frames the full scale of the disruption. OPEC figures show output dropped from 42.77 million b/d in February to 33.13 million in May — a swing of more than 9 million barrels per day that sources described as the world's biggest-ever supply crisis among key OPEC members. Incremental quota decisions barely register against that number.6,1
The 379,000 b/d of remaining quota headroom in the unwind becomes market-relevant only if Hormuz traffic resumes at scale. If it does, those barrels could reach markets faster than current prices anticipate; if it does not, the August 2 vote joins a string of OPEC+ decisions that amount to bookkeeping rather than supply policy. Saudi Arabia's official price moves into Asia may be the clearer signal of which scenario Riyadh considers more likely.6