Kpler Sees Hormuz LNG Flows Severely Constrained Through Year-End
Kpler's base case puts LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz severely curtailed until at least December, with any recovery pushed to Q1 2027 amid ceasefire uncertainty.
LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz will remain "severely constrained" through the end of 2026 before a gradual recovery in the first quarter of 2027, data firm Kpler said on Thursday (2026-07-24), outlining its new base-case scenario for what has become one of the most disruptive chokepoints in global gas supply.7
Qatar and the UAE together account for the bulk of LNG that transits Hormuz. Disruptions first emerged when vessels began avoiding the route amid fears of being caught in the crossfire should what analysts described as a "fragile" US-Iranian ceasefire fail to hold, and obtaining insurance for the transit became "trickier," analysts told Montel on Thursday (2026-05-21). JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $21.82/MMBtu on Thursday (2026-07-24), reflecting a market that has not priced in a near-term return to normal supply flows.1,7
A brief window opened after the US and Iran reached a peace agreement on Thursday (2026-06-18). The Malta-flagged Disha became the first LNG tanker to cross Hormuz and dock in the aftermath, carrying 62,370 tonnes of Qatari gas to India's Dahej terminal, Gasworld reported on Friday (2026-06-19). The cargo was contracted by Petronet LNG, which holds a 7.5 million tonne per year supply agreement with Qatar under a 20-year deal signed in 2024 and estimated to be worth $78 billion.4
But the respite was short. Ship attacks on a container vessel on Thursday (2026-06-25) slowed energy shipping through the strait, with fresh US-Iran strikes adding to operator uncertainty in late June, shipping data showed on Monday (2026-06-29). On Sunday (2026-07-12), tanker traffic fell to the lowest level in five weeks following the latest US-Iran escalation, OilPrice.com reported on Monday (2026-07-13), reinforcing that any recovery in throughput would be fragile and episodic.5,6
Vessels running with transponders off or otherwise obscured accounted for 57% of all Hormuz transits over the disruption period, peaking at 65.2% in May, according to Reuters data cited by OilPrice.com on Tuesday (2026-06-09). By early June, five Qatari LNG cargoes had cleared the chokepoint since the start of the conflict. That pace made clear how sparingly operators were using the route even as producers maintained loadings.3
Gulf producers have held their nerve on exports. About 8 million barrels of Emirati and Qatari crude moved out on four very large crude carriers over the weekend of June 27-28 (2026-06-27 to 2026-06-28), Kpler data showed. Rising Gulf exports contributed to a 10.6% decline in Brent crude during the week of June 22 (week of 2026-06-22), its third consecutive weekly fall, though fresh weekend strikes lifted prices on Monday (2026-06-29).5
If disruptions persisted through the end of August, 38-42 million tonnes of demand destruction would be required globally in 2026 and up to 20 million tonnes the following year, Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners, told Montel on Wednesday (2026-05-20). A separate Poten & Partners executive said the blockade's impact on LNG supply could last until 2028, even assuming the situation resolves soon.2
India is among the most exposed buyers. The country imported more than 27 million tonnes of LNG in 2024/25, with Qatar supplying 11.2 million tonnes, more than 40% of India's total, according to government data. Petronet LNG's contracted volumes sit at the heart of that exposure. Wood Mackenzie expects prices to remain elevated for roughly 18 months before new capacity comes onstream over the following five years, Gasworld reported.4
Kpler's Q1 2027 recovery timeline rests on ceasefire conditions that have already broken down twice since mid-June. Analysts noted to Montel on Thursday (2026-05-21) that insurance markets were pricing the route as high-risk. A further escalation involving Qatari or Emirati vessels would push that recovery date out further. ICE Endex TTF front-month held at €61.90/MWh on Thursday (2026-07-24); European winter cover will depend partly on how far Atlantic LNG arbitrage flows can offset the Qatari shortfall.7,1