Qatar and UAE LNG Sellers Accept Lower Slope Pricing as War Leaves Capacity Offline
Some buyers have concluded new long-term LNG deals at slopes around 12.3% of Brent, below the pre-war 12.6%-12.7%, as Ras Laffan damage weakens Qatar's negotiating position.
QatarEnergy estimates that Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan's LNG Trains 4 and 6 and Pearl GTL Train 2 during spring 2026 attacks will keep around 12.8 million tonnes per year of capacity offline for an extended repair period, oilprice.com reported on Wednesday (2026-07-23). European gas storage has meanwhile dropped to under 54% of capacity, compared with 64% at the same point last year.2
Some long-term LNG contracts signed with Qatar and the UAE since the war began have been concluded at oil-price slopes of around 12.3% of Brent crude, below the 12.6% to 12.7% range that prevailed before the conflict, an industry source told Reuters. Buyers from Europe to Asia are treating the damaged supply base and higher routing costs as grounds to reprice regional risk into new agreements.3
At ICE Brent crude front-month prices of $97.81 per barrel as of Friday (2026-07-24), even a 12.3% slope generates substantial revenue per cargo. But sellers who once commanded consistent pricing premiums are now negotiating with significant export infrastructure under repair and their main shipping corridors intermittently closed.3
Ras Laffan before the war accounted for 75 million tonnes of annual LNG output, equivalent to 17% of global exports, according to the Economist. The spring 2026 strikes removed a disproportionate share of the world's most concentrated LNG production from service in days.1
Asia's exposure is the most direct. The region accounts for nearly 90% of LNG shipments from Qatar and the UAE, oilprice.com reported on Wednesday (2026-07-23). Qatar supplied 30% of China's LNG imports last year, 45% of India's, and effectively all of Pakistan's, according to the Economist.2,1
Europe's exposure, smaller in percentage terms, arrives at an awkward moment. The continent draws 7% to 11% of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE, with storage now below 54% full compared with 64% last year. ICIS analysts said Europe's gas supplies face continued pressure through winter, with the conflict delaying the expected recovery of Qatari LNG flows.2
The routing disruption compounds the capacity losses. About 20% of global oil and gas transited through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, which normally handles roughly 7% of global oil output, has also been effectively closed, oilprice.com reported on Wednesday (2026-07-23). Alternative routes add time and cost to every cargo. ICE Endex TTF front-month natural gas stood at EUR 61.90 per MWh as of Friday (2026-07-24). JKM Asian LNG was at $21.82 per MMBtu at the same date.2
Market participants have responded with unusual urgency. LNG transactions through the Physical Asia Platts Market on Close process rose sharply after the conflict escalated, while derivatives market trading volumes jumped 251% year-on-year, according to S&P Global senior price reporter Suyash Pande. The surge reflects buyers locking in alternative supply and traders exploiting price differences across regional benchmarks.2
The 12.3% slope deals reported by the industry source are described as isolated rather than systematic. Still, buyers arguing for lower slopes can point to a verifiable set of conditions: damaged infrastructure, restricted routing, elevated regional risk, and alternative supply from the US, Australia and east Africa that bypasses the Hormuz corridor entirely.3,1,2
Qatar's ability to resist further concessions depends on the pace of Ras Laffan repairs and on strait accessibility through the heating season, neither of which has a confirmed timeline. Buyers signing new agreements now are pricing against unresolved answers on both.2,3