Qatar Counts $24 Billion in LNG Losses as Diesel and Asian Spot Prices Stay Elevated
Six months after Iran's war shuttered Ras Laffan, Qatar's exports are down 96% and energy costs across linked markets remain sharply elevated.
Asian LNG spot prices settled at $24.02/MMBtu on September 5 (2026-09-05) and U.S. diesel held at $4.54 per gallon, a pricing environment rooted in the near-total disruption of Qatari LNG exports since the Iran war began. Reuters calculations published on August 26 (2026-08-26) put Qatar's cumulative six-month loss at $24 billion, with shipments down as much as 96% from pre-war volumes.7
Qatar supplies roughly one fifth of global LNG, and the scale of that withdrawal has kept costs elevated well beyond the initial shock. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $94.97 per barrel on September 5 (2026-09-05). ICE Endex TTF front-month gas settled at €71.95 per megawatt-hour at Friday's (2026-09-04) close. JKM, the Asian spot benchmark, reached above $25/MMBtu at the height of the disruption, according to industry data, before pulling back to its current level.6,2
The disruption began on Monday (2026-03-02), when QatarEnergy shut LNG output at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed after Iranian military strikes hit the export network. European gas prices jumped nearly 50% in the immediate aftermath. Asian LNG spot prices eventually rose 143%, crossing $25/MMBtu.6,2
Ras Laffan is the world's single largest LNG-producing facility. QatarEnergy estimates that damage there will cost roughly $20 billion per year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair. That timeline shapes how much of the supply loss can realistically be recovered in any near-term market balance.5
The Strait of Hormuz added a second layer of disruption. One of QatarEnergy's LNG carriers was struck in the waterway in early July 2026. The vessel idled for roughly three weeks before completing a crossing, Bloomberg reported on July 30 (2026-07-30), marking the first successful LNG cargo through the strait since the attack. WTI crude surged nearly 13% around the peak of that disruption.5
QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG shipments through mid-October 2026, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday (2026-07-22), citing people with knowledge of the matter. Asian and European buyers were notified of the extension.4
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire in June reopened Hormuz to shipping. QatarEnergy said at that point it could restore 50% of LNG production capacity within a month. By mid-August, the company was reported capable of reaching 80% of pre-war output.5 But physical damage at Ras Laffan sets the ceiling on recovery pace, and a five-year repair estimate means full capacity is years away regardless of how quickly partial operations expand.
Global consultancies have cut LNG supply projections by up to 35 million tons following the conflict. Around 12.8 million tons of annual capacity could remain offline for three to five years, analysts said — a sustained drag that analysts had not factored into pre-war supply growth forecasts.1
Buyers are moving to extract concessions. Long-term LNG contracts from Qatar and the UAE were typically priced at 12.6%-12.7% of Brent crude before the conflict. Some deals concluded since have been priced closer to 12.3%, Reuters reported on July 23 (2026-07-23). Six Asia-based traders told Reuters they plan to press for lower prices and stronger supply security guarantees in future talks. Growing output from U.S., Canadian and Mozambique exporters gives those buyers additional negotiating cover, one of the six traders said, and both Qatar and the UAE have capacity expansion plans that buyers will cite to push for further discounts.3
At ICE Brent's current level of $94.97 per barrel, a new long-term deal priced at 12.3% of crude implies roughly $11.68/MMBtu — a stark discount to JKM's September 5 (2026-09-05) spot of $24.02/MMBtu. Whether QatarEnergy delivers on its mid-October 2026 force majeure deadline without another extension will be the earliest concrete signal of how quickly the supply balance, and with it buyer leverage in contract talks, can actually shift.5,4