U.S. LNG Exports to Europe Hit Record 10.3 Bcf/d in 2025 as Asian Buyers Now Compete for the Same Cargoes
EIA data show American shipments to Europe jumped 63% last year; the Strait of Hormuz closure has since put Asian buyers in direct competition for spot cargoes.
U.S. LNG shipments to Europe averaged a record 10.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, up from 6.3 Bcf/d the prior year, according to an EIA report published on July 14 (2026-07-14). That 63% jump represented the single largest destination shift in American LNG export history and confirmed the United States as Europe's dominant swing supplier.5
America's total LNG exports rose 26% to 15.1 Bcf/d last year, giving the United States a 26% share of global trade — up from 21% in 2024, the EIA said. Europe absorbed the bulk of that increment, and the country's export growth alone was larger in absolute terms than any other producer managed.5
Russian LNG exports fell 8%, or 0.4 Bcf/d, in 2025 — the largest volumetric decline among major exporters. EU sanctions stemming from the Ukraine invasion pushed European utilities toward alternative sources, and American Gulf Coast terminals were available at scale and at the right time.5
Global LNG trade grew 5.4% to a record 56.3 Bcf/d in 2025, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers. The United States, Qatar, and Australia between them held 63% of global supply, up from 60% a year earlier.5
Qatar accounted for the second-largest export increase, rising 3% to 10.6 Bcf/d. Those volumes have since been disrupted. The Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28 (2026-02-28), cutting off approximately 20% of global LNG supplies, and Qatari exports have fallen since.5
Asian buyers, who in 2025 imported over 80% of Qatari volumes, are now competing on the global spot market alongside European buyers seeking to refill storage inventories below seasonal norms. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $20.98 per MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-07-18).5 ICE Endex TTF front-month settled at €57.51 per MWh in the same session. Both benchmarks sit well above NYMEX Henry Hub front-month, which stood at $2.89 per MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-07-18), preserving the arbitrage economics that have driven Atlantic Basin LNG flows eastward on opportunity.2
The 2025 statistics capture conditions that may not be replicable under current market structure. Europe benefited from a buyer's market in Atlantic Basin LNG last year — American exporters could route cargoes freely toward European regasification terminals rather than competing for premium Asian spot prices. That calculus shifts when Asian buyers lose access to contracted Qatari supply and must buy spot.5
American production is rising to meet that demand. L48 marketed natural gas output averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in Q1 2026 (Q1 2026), 4% higher than a year earlier, and the EIA forecasts a 3% full-year increase driven largely by Permian volumes expected to reach 29.2 Bcf/d.1 Export capacity is on track to nearly double by 2031, Shell estimates.4
Wood Mackenzie analysts argue the era of structurally low Henry Hub prices is ending. AI data center demand and LNG export infrastructure growth will push the benchmark toward $5 per MMBtu by 2035, the consultancy said.3 The current NYMEX Henry Hub front-month price of $2.89 per MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-07-18) suggests the market has not yet priced that shift, but rising export demand will eventually feed through to U.S. domestic gas costs, compressing the margin that made record European flows economically straightforward to execute.3
How quickly Hormuz flows resume before the Northern Hemisphere winter refill season closes is the pressure point. If Qatari exports remain constrained, competition between Asian and European spot buyers for available U.S. cargoes will intensify precisely when European utilities face their highest volume requirements.5