US Claims a Quarter of Global LNG Trade as Hormuz Cuts Qatar's Record Flows
Global LNG trade hit a record 56.3 Bcf/d in 2025 with the U.S. its biggest growth driver, but the Strait of Hormuz closure is now forcing Asian and European buyers to compete for the same spot cargoes.
Global liquefied natural gas trade reached 56.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, a 5.4% increase from the prior year and the highest volume on record, according to EIA analysis published July 14 (2026-07-14) drawing on data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers. The United States drove more of that gain than any other country.3
American LNG exports rose 26% to 15.1 Bcf/d last year, lifting the U.S. share of world supply to 26% from 21% in 2024. Combined, the United States, Qatar, and Australia accounted for 63% of global trade, up from 60% the year before, as a small group of large producers tightened their grip on supply.3
Qatar added the second-largest volume increase, with exports rising 3% to 10.6 Bcf/d in 2025. Those figures now read as a pre-disruption baseline. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28 (2026-02-28), severing approximately 20% of global LNG supply flows according to EIA, and Qatari exports have fallen materially in 2026 as a result.3
The disruption has altered how Asian and European buyers source spot cargoes. Asian importers took more than 80% of Qatari volumes in 2025; with those flows curtailed, they are now competing directly against European utilities running storage injections into inventories that remain below seasonal norms. Asian LNG spot (JKM) was at $20.98/MMBtu as of July 19 (2026-07-19), while ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at €57.51/MWh.3
Russia moved the other way. Russian LNG exports fell 8% — 0.4 Bcf/d — in 2025, the largest volumetric decline of any exporter, as EU sanctions stemming from the Ukraine invasion constrained trade. With Russian volumes already reduced and Qatari flows disrupted, two of the market's traditional flexible supply buffers have been removed simultaneously.3
On the U.S. side, upstream production shows no obvious strain. EIA's May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (2026-05-21) put Lower 48 marketed gas output at 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, a 4% year-on-year increase. The agency forecasts full-year 2026 production rising 3%, led by the Permian Basin, which it projects will reach 29.2 Bcf/d — 6% above 2025 levels.1
The Haynesville Shale, which feeds Gulf Coast liquefaction terminals more directly than Permian volumes, is forecast to grow 6% this year and 8% in 2027. Five new U.S. LNG export projects are scheduled to ramp through the end of 2027, each requiring sustained upstream supply commitments to justify their commercial terms.1
A study by S&P Global Energy, reported July 15 (2026-07-15), projected that LNG exports will become the second-largest U.S. net export industry within five years, supporting around 550,000 jobs annually. A related analysis published July 16 (2026-07-16) put the economic contribution at $1.4 trillion through 2040. Those numbers assume no material shift in federal permitting policy or long-term financing conditions, both of which have proven variable.5,4
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was at $2.89/MMBtu as of July 19 (2026-07-19), a price level that normally does little to restrain Permian or Haynesville drilling. EIA's base case has Henry Hub averaging just under $3.50/MMBtu for 2026; Morgan Stanley has flagged the possibility of a move toward $5/MMBtu if winter demand runs above seasonal norms.2,1
How long the Hormuz closure keeps Qatari volumes below historical norms will determine whether 2026 LNG trade extends the record or logs its first year of compression. Asian buyers drawing down storage rather than paying spot premiums would ease TTF pressure; prolonged competition for Atlantic Basin cargoes would not. Neither outcome is yet clear.3