China burned 56% of the world's coal last year and built more of it anyway
New energy data confirm China's coal dominance is widening even as its renewable buildout breaks records, leaving global emissions trajectory in doubt.
China accounted for 56% of worldwide coal consumption and 31% of all carbon emissions in 2025, according to figures published by the Energy Institute in its latest Statistical Review of World Energy, released on Friday (2026-07-18). For comparison, the United States checks in at 5% of global coal use and 13% of total emissions. The gap between the two largest economies has rarely looked so stark.7
Hydrocarbons provided 86.24% of all global primary energy in 2025, down from 86.65% the prior year, the same data show. Renewables accounted for roughly a third of global primary energy growth — but that growth was barely 1% in absolute terms, meaning the aggregate shift away from fossil fuels remains marginal.7
The numbers puncture a narrative that has gained traction in parts of the energy press. A widely shared social media post by a meteorologist recently claimed it is a myth that China is responsible for rapidly rising carbon dioxide emissions. The underlying data tell a different story. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have risen by approximately 14 billion metric tons this century; China's portion of that increase is roughly 8.8 billion metric tons, or about 62% of the global total. Over the same period, US emissions fell by nearly 1 billion metric tons annually.5
China produces approximately 4.8 billion tons of coal per year, more than half of the global total. Last year the country released over 12 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, accounting for more than 30% of world emissions, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finnish think-tank. A twelve-month rolling analysis ending in March suggested Chinese emissions were 1% lower than the preceding year — a tentative signal, but one analysts treat cautiously given the country's history of data revisions.4,2
The renewable buildout is genuine and large. In 2024, China's installed solar capacity rose 45.2% and wind capacity rose 18%, according to the Statistical Review. Last year, construction started on enough new solar capacity to produce 100 gigawatts of power, on top of 1,170 gigawatts already installed. Wind additions came to 79 gigawatts on top of an existing 440 gigawatts — more than four times Britain's entire generating capacity from all sources combined.5,1,4
Yet coal plants keep being built alongside them. China's latest five-year plan, released this month, commits the country to continued heavy spending on both coal and renewables. Average utilisation per coal plant has fallen below 50%, but overall coal generation is still rising as total fleet capacity expands, according to analysis of the plan's projections. Beijing's stated logic is optionality: additional coal capacity provides a buffer against supply shocks or demand spikes that solar and wind cannot cover on short notice.6,1
Coal now accounts for approximately 54.6% of China's electricity generation, down slightly from prior years as the share shifts gradually toward cleaner sources. But a declining share of a growing pie still means more absolute coal burn. China's coal-fired power sector alone creates roughly 15% of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, according to Economist analysis.2,1
The measurement problem makes all of this harder to track. New government data disclosed that China has been burning significantly more coal annually than previously reported, according to CNBC. "It's been a confusing situation for a long time," Ayaka Jones, a China analyst at the US Energy Information Administration, said in reference to the opacity of Chinese energy statistics. The scale of the discrepancy, when it emerged, unsettled analysts who had been working from the prior figures.3
For commodity markets, the direction of Chinese coal demand feeds directly into Newcastle physical prices, which closed at $119.70 per tonne as of Friday (2026-07-18). Asian LNG is priced at $20.98 per MMBtu at Friday's (2026-07-18) close, with the JKM level partly reflecting the substitution economics between gas and coal for Chinese power generators. Any sustained softening of coal burn — if the tentative emissions dip proves durable — would weaken that substitution premium.
The critical unknown is whether the 1% emissions decline observed through March 2026 marks the beginning of a genuine structural turn or is a temporary effect of mild weather or slower industrial activity. China's own five-year plan offers little clarification, simultaneously pledging green capacity targets and coal security. Until coal plant retirements begin to outpace additions, the headline renewable numbers describe inputs, not outcomes.6,4