Brent Crude Closes at $88.26 as Hormuz Shipping Risk Holds After U.S. Strikes
ICE Brent September settled at $88.26 as of Friday's (2026-07-18) close, extending a recovery driven by Strait of Hormuz attack risk that has resisted diplomatic efforts since July.
ICE Brent crude front-month for September settled at $88.26 a barrel as of Friday's close (2026-07-18), extending a recovery that has taken the contract from $76.18 following U.S. strikes on Iran on July 7 (2026-07-07) to its highest level in weeks. NYMEX WTI crude front-month for August settled at $82.49 a barrel in the same session.5,6
The recovery follows a sequence of escalating moves since early July. When U.S. forces struck Iranian targets on July 7 (2026-07-07), in retaliation for Tehran's attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Brent for September delivery gained 2.75% to $76.18 and WTI for August rose 2.87% to $72.46 in that session. By Tuesday, July 15 (2026-07-15), Brent had settled at $84.95 and WTI at $79.60.5,6
A maritime risk-assessment centre upgraded its threat rating for ships transiting the waterway to "severe" following the early-July strikes, warning that further hostile action by Iran remained possible. The Strait carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, meaning even a partial disruption translates quickly into front-month premiums.5,1
"While crude has started to find some balance after rallying from around $70, it still takes a brave shipowner to transit the Strait of Hormuz with the threat of attacks from forces aligned with Tehran remaining very real," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, speaking around July 15 (2026-07-15).6
The current settlement at $88.26 sits well below the peak reached by the Brent July delivery contract on Monday, May 18 (2026-05-18), when Brent futures for July delivery settled at $112.10 and WTI for June settled at $108.66, as hopes for a Hormuz settlement faded and oil had risen more than 50% since the conflict began. The trough arrived on June 22 (2026-06-22), when Brent fell to around $77.51 as peace-talk optimism briefly lifted sentiment.1,32
Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates attributed the market's wide price swings to conflicting statements from the White House and Tehran. The range is substantial: Brent settled at $96.00 on June 2 (2026-06-02) before dropping to $76.18 five weeks later following fresh strikes, and has now recovered through $88.2,5
Diplomatic signals have complicated the picture throughout. On June 24 (2026-06-24), President Trump told reporters that any Iranian attempt to levy tolls on Hormuz passage would be a red-line in negotiations. Iran subsequently resumed attacks on commercial shipping, drawing the U.S. retaliatory strikes in July. Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said separately that Tehran's negotiating team had received a new American text that, unlike previous drafts, accepted sanctions waivers during the talks period.4,1
Strategic reserve releases have compressed the premium without eliminating it. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the coordinated release had added 2.5 million barrels per day to the market but noted the reserves were "not endless." That buffer helped prevent a repeat of the May peak but has not resolved the underlying access question.1
With Brent at $88.26 and WTI at $82.49 as of Friday's close (2026-07-18), the next catalysts remain binary. Confirmation of the reported American concession on sanctions waivers would likely deflate part of the risk premium; any further Iranian action against commercial shipping would probably push Brent back toward the June highs. A market that has swung from $77 to $112 and back is not short of volatility, and analysts say it remains highly sensitive to any news on negotiations, ceasefire agreements, or shipping access through the strait.1,52