Brent Tops $87 at Friday's Close as Hormuz Disruption Pushes Asian Refiners Into Costlier Supply
ICE Brent crude front-month gained more than 12% in a week as Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed toward 5-15% of pre-war norms, with Eurasia Group forecasting a move to $95.
ICE Brent crude front-month settled at $87.76 a barrel on Friday (2026-07-17), up 4.19% on the day and more than 12% above its close a week earlier (2026-07-10), as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities kept Strait of Hormuz supply risk firmly at the centre of the crude market.5,2
Eurasia Group analysts now expect Hormuz traffic to fall to just 5-15% of pre-war levels, from a previous range of 30-50%, and see ICE Brent front-month heading toward $95 a barrel if those conditions persist.3
The conflict's latest phase began on July 7 (2026-07-07), when the United States launched airstrikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on vessels transiting the strait. Washington simultaneously suspended a Treasury license that had authorized Iranian oil sales for sixty days, withdrawing a significant volume of supply with little warning.4
A brief lull followed. ICE Brent crude front-month then surged 8% on Monday (2026-07-13) after Trump announced the United States would reinstate its blockade on Iran. In Asian trade on Tuesday (2026-07-14), ICE Brent crude front-month was still adding 1.91% to reach $84.89 while NYMEX WTI crude front-month rose 2.02% to $79.72, as traders concluded that any recovery of strait shipping would be slow and contested.2
Trump's proposal for a 20% fee for U.S. protection of Hormuz transit added a separate cost variable. Applied to a supertanker carrying 2 million barrels at $80 per barrel, the levy would amount to roughly $32 million per voyage, or approximately $16 a barrel — a figure that would alter the economics of every Middle Eastern cargo cleared through the strait. The fee remains a stated idea rather than implemented policy, but shipping desks and Asian refinery procurement teams are pricing the risk that it advances.2
Asian refiners moved quickly to lock in alternatives. According to oilprice.com, ADNOC emergency crude sales during the disruption absorbed at least 30 million barrels of Das, Upper Zakum and Umm Lulu crude. Indian refiners took approximately 6 million barrels, Japan's Eneos secured 3 million barrels, and South Korea's SK Energy and GS Energy together purchased a further 8 million barrels.1
Murban crude — Abu Dhabi's light low-sulfur benchmark — gained ground as the key pricing reference for this buying. Murban futures had been evolving from a regional contract into a broader global standard before the conflict; the disruption deepened that role, as ADNOC emergency sales reached refinery systems across India, Japan and South Korea simultaneously.1
The bullish case rests on Hormuz throughput staying at or below Eurasia Group's 5-15% estimate. The risk to that view is a faster-than-expected diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran, or the transit fee remaining political rhetoric rather than a formal tariff. Either development would put the current war premium under pressure. The VIX was quoted at 18.77 early Saturday (2026-07-18), up 12.33% on the session — elevated, but short of the readings that accompany sustained risk-off episodes in commodity markets.5
As of Saturday (2026-07-18), ICE Brent crude front-month was quoted at $88.10 a barrel and NYMEX WTI crude front-month at $82.49. Whether Hormuz throughput data released in the week of 21 July shows any improvement, and whether the Trump transit fee moves toward formal implementation, will determine how much of the current premium survives into August.2,1