Russia Flags 135 Million-Barrel Oil Export Surge Amid Rising OPEC+ Strains
Moscow projects record crude shipments just as global refining capacity and logistics face mounting constraints.
Russia's economy ministry now expects oil exports to hit 240.1 million tons in 2025, a jump of 10.4 million tons from its previous forecast of 229.7 million tons, according to projections compiled by the ministry.2 The revision comes as the country's gas sector deepens its slide — pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union are seen declining 10.7% this year to just 72 bcm.2
Moscow is doubling down on crude at a moment when the global oil market is already contending with a splintered OPEC+ alliance, a closed Strait of Hormuz and mounting pressure on tanker routes. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $88.10/bbl as of Friday's (2026-07-18) close, while the Urals discount remained deep at $66.84/bbl — a spread that keeps Russian barrels among the cheapest available globally.2[LIVE_PRICES]
The export upgrade creates a logistical test. Russian crude must travel farther to reach willing buyers, as Europe now takes just 3% of its crude imports from Russia, down from roughly 30% in 2021.1,2 With most volume redirected to India, China and other Asian refiners, Baltic and Pacific routes are under pressure, though the ministry's projections do not appear to factor in delivered-cost economics.2
Russia's gas-to-oil pivot is stark. State-owned Gazprom incurred losses of nearly $7 billion in 2023, its first annual deficit since 1999, after the rupture with the EU gutted its primary export market.2 Russian gas now accounts for 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, and LNG exports are seen edging up just 3% this year to 35.7 million metric tons, still below earlier forecasts.2
The oil export upgrade lifts Russia's combined oil-and-gas revenue estimate for 2025 to $206.1 billion, up from $200.3 billion in the prior forecast.2 But the 2026 outlook is already softening: the ministry cut next year's revenue projection to $215.2 billion from $220.4 billion, a sign that Moscow expects the current export push to be brief.2
OPEC+ dynamics complicate matters. The UAE left the alliance in early May as war in the Middle East and the Hormuz closure fractured the group's cohesion.3 Kazakhstan, another member, produced 19.7 million tons of crude and condensate in the first quarter, or 80.2% of the level recorded a year earlier, while exports fell to 15.3 million tons, at 78.5% year-on-year.3 Analysts said the splits over quota allocations and capacity expansion are now open rather than tacit.3
The Hormuz closure has already shifted global trade flows. According to IEA data, nearly 20 million barrels per day transited the strait in 2025, meaning every week of closure forces buyers to source entire cargoes from alternative, often more expensive, basins.3 Morgan Stanley warned that if the waterway remained closed into June, the oil market faced "a race against time" to balance supply and demand.5
Russian volumes are one of those alternatives. US crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels in the week ending June 27, EIA data published Wednesday (2026-05-20) showed, partly on higher domestic production and a 3.8 million barrel-a-day surge in US exports that has competed directly with Russian cargoes for Asian offtake.4,5 China's 5.5 million barrel-a-day cut in imports has cushioned the supply impact for other buyers, but the buffer is not permanent.5
How much of Russia's additional output can reach buyers before tanker availability, insurance premiums and port slots tighten is what refiners are watching. Every barrel that cannot clear that chain risks landing in floating storage or domestic tanks, widening the Urals discount further and adding to a surplus that global refining capacity is already struggling to absorb.2,1