CorrectionOur 15 July correction to the 14 July editions itself carried an incorrect figure — August TTF settled at €53.06/MWh on 14 July, not €44.18. The cause was a stale exchange-data feed, now fixed. Read the full account →
Good Energy secures Ørsted Walney supply as TTF rally holds EUA Dec above $80
A two-year Cumbrian offshore PPA and a 2.47% ICE Endex TTF gain on Wednesday illustrate utilities paying for renewable supply security while European carbon stays supported.
Good Energy secured a power purchase agreement on Wednesday (2026-07-15) to buy wind electricity from Ørsted's Walney 1 and 2 offshore farms off the Cumbrian coast, covering October 2026 through October 2028. The deal is the UK renewable retailer's second long-term arrangement with the Danish developer; the company already contracts 110 GWh of annual supply from Ørsted's Hornsea 1 project under a similar arrangement.3
ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 2.47% to €54.37 on Wednesday (2026-07-15), a gain that carried European power markets higher and held ICE EUA Dec-rolling at $80.43 into the settlement.3 The transmission is mechanical: higher gas raises the marginal cost of generation across the European dispatch stack, increasing EUA demand as gas-fired capacity burns more carbon per megawatt-hour than lower-carbon alternatives.
Fran Woodward, Good Energy's managing director of supply, said demand for home-grown renewable power was "accelerating, driven by an ongoing energy crisis and heightened global instability."3 For a retailer committed to supplying 100% renewable energy to thousands of customers, a fixed-price Cumbrian wind contract covering two winters limits exposure to wherever TTF settles during the 2026–27 heating season.3
Good Energy has pursued the same logic elsewhere in its business. In April (2026-04), it partnered with Stellium Datacenters on a purpose-built campus near Newcastle, targeting a 75% reduction in the operator's carbon emissions. The company has also expanded into solar installation, battery storage and electric vehicle charging.3
Among ten signals tracked on EUA Dec, the bullish weight stands at 0.607 against a bearish reading of 0.315. The principal supply anchor is Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, still running at reduced capacity after damage earlier this year removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply, according to market reports.1 That outage has underpinned ICE Endex TTF through the injection season and, by extension, the gas-to-carbon link supporting EUA.
China's power sector adds a second layer to the demand picture. Total power generation in China rose an estimated 6.6% year-on-year through April (2026-04), with weak wind conditions, subdued solar output and extended nuclear refuelling outages pushing coal power higher for the fourth consecutive month, according to Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air data.2 Thermal commissioning in the first quarter surged more than 160% year-on-year to a record high.2 The coal-heavy expansion narrows the LNG volumes available to substitute for gas in European power dispatch, adding an indirect support to European allowance demand.
Not all signals lean the same way. JKM spot LNG carries a bearish demand reading at a contrarian confidence score of 0.315, and ICE Brent crude front-month is also flagging bearish on demand at the same score. Brent stood at $85.06 on Wednesday (2026-07-15), broadly flat on the session.1 A sustained softening in crude and Asian LNG demand would, over time, reduce the global energy cost base that underpins the gas-price bid beneath EUA Dec.
The Edison Electric Institute reported US electricity generation up 2.2% year-on-year in the latest weekly reading, with total generation over the past year up 1.8%.1 Demand growth at that pace keeps Atlantic LNG flows competitive but falls short of the kind of spike needed to decisively tighten European gas balances ahead of winter.
The clearest near-term risk for EUA Dec is a faster-than-expected Ras Laffan restart or a cooler August undercutting the TTF bid that has held European carbon near current levels.1 Good Energy signed its Walney contract on Wednesday (2026-07-15) on the assumption that the instability now priced into two-year supply agreements outlasts any near-term relief.3