CorrectionOur 15 July correction to the 14 July editions itself carried an incorrect figure — August TTF settled at €53.06/MWh on 14 July, not €44.18. The cause was a stale exchange-data feed, now fixed. Read the full account →
German Power Holds Gains as TTF Rally Keeps Generation Costs Elevated
German baseload front-month holds near €117/MWh as the ICE Endex TTF front-month climbs 3.50%, with analysts forecasting a 17% Q2 year-on-year surge in spot power prices.
German baseload front-month power held at €117.07/MWh on Wednesday (2026-07-15), up 0.04% on the day, as the ICE Endex TTF front-month climbed 3.50% to €53.06, sustaining the gas-power link that analysts at Montel say has driven German generation costs through the spring.2
Analysts at Montel forecast Q2 2026 German spot power could surge 17% year on year, with gas prices expected to average €46.35/MWh in the second quarter, up €13.20, a 40% jump from Q2 2025.2 Solar output increases and softer demand should limit some power price upside, they said, but not enough to offset the full effect of higher gas costs.2
The cross-sector transmission amplifies the pressure beyond the German border. Higher German power feeds EUA demand, which in turn lifts import costs for France and Italy.5 During the week of 2026-05-18, Germany's power margin fell to the lowest level of the winter as low wind speeds and colder weather strained supply, Bloomberg models showed.5
But the market's conviction is thin. Signal data show a mixed directional bias with only 9% directional strength, suggesting traders see upside and downside risks as roughly balanced.5 Bullish weighting sits at 1.050, against a bearish reading of 0.885.5 German factory gate prices rose 5.3% on the month, the largest single gain since Germany began compiling the data in 1949, complicating any clean demand read.4
Historical data on Germany's renewable mix add context, if dated. BDEW figures from 2021 show the green electricity share fell from 46% in 2020 to 42%, with output dropping to 238 billion kWh from 250 billion kWh the prior year.3 Those numbers cannot be applied to the current generation mix, but they illustrate how quickly the renewable contribution can retreat when baseload conditions tighten.3
On the Atlantic side, the LNG arbitrage is not easing European gas prices. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month settled at $2.96/MMBtu on Friday (2026-05-15), gaining 2.3% for the day and about 7.4% for the week, and was trading near $2.91 on Wednesday (2026-07-15).1 Weekly US LNG vessel departures reached 141 Bcf, up 26 Bcf from the prior week, despite maintenance at several export facilities.1 With TTF at €53.06 and Henry Hub near $2.91, the transatlantic spread still favours shipping cargoes east.
German power forward curves show the Q+1 contract at €130.80 against the Cal+1 at €102.30, a spread suggesting traders expect near-term cost pressure to ease through 2027.2 Whether the 17% year-on-year power surge analysts forecast materialises or is capped by solar output and weaker demand will determine how durable that curve shape proves.2
If TTF holds above €53/MWh and Germany's power margin stays compressed below the lows flagged during the week of 2026-05-18, the Montel Q2 forecast may prove conservative.2,5