US supply glut looms over San Diego gas forum as Rockies producers eye outlets
More than 250 buyers and sellers convene in California in August as Lower 48 production runs 4% above year-ago levels with no letup in sight.
More than 250 natural gas industry decision-makers will gather in San Diego on August 10-12 for the 22nd Annual Energy Innovations: LDC Gas Forum Rockies & West, bringing together buyers, sellers and transporters to structure deals across North American natural gas and LNG markets.4,5
The backdrop is a market still absorbing a supply build. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month stood at $2.89 on Tuesday (2026-07-14), down 0.34% on the session, reflecting ample domestic production against moderate summer cooling demand.1
That supply overhang is growing, not shrinking. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Lower 48 marketed natural gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, a 4% increase compared with the same period in 2025.1
The EIA projects full-year output rising a further 3% versus 2025, driven mainly by the Permian basin. The Permian is expected to produce 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, or 6% above last year's level, though pipeline bottlenecks have weighed on takeaway capacity from the basin through mid-year.1
Those constraints are expected to ease later in 2026. The EIA forecasts Permian output growing by 10% in 2027, while the Haynesville region — a gas-dominant play straddling Louisiana and Texas — is projected to expand production by 6% this year and 8% the year after.1
For the San Diego forum, the producer-side pressure translates directly into what pipelines and local distribution companies are willing to pay for new transport capacity. Enbridge during the week of May 18, 2026 launched an open season to rekindle a proposed expansion of its Algonquin natural gas transmission system targeting New England demand. The move signals midstream companies see a growing mismatch between basin output and existing delivery infrastructure.2
The market consensus ahead of the conference is firmly bearish, with analysts finding no bullish weight in available signal data against a bearish signal strength of 0.308.1,4
Mexico sits as a meaningful variable in the Rockies-and-West supply corridor. US-Mexico ties have deteriorated as the USMCA trade agreement review proceeds, with analysts saying it is unlikely that all three countries will agree to extend the current terms.3
Disruption to US natural gas exports to Mexico — a growing outlet for Permian and South Texas volumes — would push additional supply back into the domestic balance at a moment when storage is building. Forum attendees with cross-border positions will be tracking the USMCA outcome alongside injection data through August.3,1
With the conference running approximately four weeks before the autumn injection season accelerates, the unresolved pressure point is whether the storage system can absorb combined volumes from the Permian, Haynesville and other expanding basins before winter demand arrives — and at what NYMEX Henry Hub price producers begin pulling back drilling activity.1