Renewed Iran Hostilities Push RBOB Gasoline Back Toward May Highs
NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month gained nearly 1% on Monday as fresh U.S.-Iran tensions revive supply-risk premiums that had largely unwound since the Hormuz crisis peak.
NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month rose 0.99% to $3.07 on Monday (2026-07-13), reversing part of the ground lost since crude markets retreated from their Strait of Hormuz closure highs. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have re-introduced a supply-risk premium that markets had spent the past several weeks dismantling, according to OilPrice.com analysis published on Monday (2026-07-13).7
The context makes the move significant. In mid-May 2026, NYMEX RBOB front-month reached $3.13, a near four-year high, on the same session that ICE Brent crude front-month briefly pierced $119 before settling at $108.65 after Israel signaled it was helping reopen the Strait. Both crude and gasoline subsequently fell hard as barrels returned to market and fears of oversupply replaced the crisis premium.2
That unwind left RBOB considerably below its May peak, but the underlying supply picture has not normalized as cleanly as prices implied. EIA data put U.S. crude inventories at 428.3 million barrels, 7% below the five-year seasonal average, after a 4.6 million barrel draw for the week ending December 10, 2025. With refinery runs and road fuel demand both elevated through the summer driving season, the cushion against another disruption is narrow.3
The IEA warned in May 2026 that oil price spikes were far from over, citing rapidly depleting inventories. Morgan Stanley subsequently forecast that the global market would lose another billion barrels through 2026, because restart timelines for idled oilfields, damaged refineries and repositioned tanker fleets are measured in months, not weeks. Analysts at UBS echoed the warning, noting that supply buffers "have now largely been exhausted."4,5
Damage from the initial Hormuz closure extended beyond crude. QatarEnergy chief executive Saad al-Kaabi disclosed that the attack removed 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. That loss rippled through Asian gas markets even as Hormuz cargo flows partially recovered, illustrating how infrastructure damage persists well after the geopolitical trigger fades.2
The EIA's first-quarter 2026 review noted that crude oil and petroleum product prices rose sharply following military action on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The review highlighted how quickly the supply-demand balance can shift when a single chokepoint is constrained, and how much longer the reversal takes.1
Monday's (2026-07-13) gasoline bid sits against a broader rally in energy. ICE Brent crude front-month added 1.47% to $79.59 while WTI crude front-month rose 1.63% to $74.92. Heating oil front-month followed, gaining 1.36% to $3.72. The alignment across crude and refined products suggests the market is treating Monday's (2026-07-13) tensions as more than a passing headline.7
The consensus on RBOB direction remains genuinely mixed. Bullish signals point to below-average crude stocks, constrained refinery capacity and Morgan Stanley's billion-barrel loss forecast. The opposing case is that crude had already shed most of its wartime gains without sparking a durable recovery, and that any diplomatic easing between Washington and Tehran could quickly extinguish the risk premium. The ceasefire-to-oversupply narrative dominated just weeks ago.7,3,4
What tips the balance is whether renewed hostilities translate into measurable supply disruption rather than sentiment alone. Analysts had expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by the end of May or early June 2026; the waterway has remained a live risk vector into mid-July. If a second constraint coincides with the peak summer draw, inventories, already 7% below the five-year average, leave little room to absorb it.6,3