Macquarie's Hormuz traffic data undercuts the bullish heating oil case
The bank's vessel numbers show Gulf flows recovering toward pre-war levels even as heating oil positioning stays tilted long on a fading Iran risk.
Macquarie told clients on Thursday (2026-07-09) that the renewed U.S.-Iran tension in the Middle East will be "relatively short" lived, and leaned on vessel traffic rather than sentiment, noting that inbound and outbound flows through the Strait of Hormuz had started recovering toward pre-war levels before the latest skirmishes.5
That cuts against the way heating oil risk is still being carried. Front-month positioning leans bullish on a storage-tightening thesis, yet the freshest evidence in the packet describes barrels returning rather than disappearing, and the bearish counter-signals sit on ICE Brent crude front-month through both finance and storage channels.5
In May the premium was heavy. ICE Brent crude front-month fell about 5% to $105.61 a barrel on Wednesday (2026-05-20) after President Trump said the Iran war would end "very quickly."3 Citi said on Tuesday (2026-05-19) that ICE Brent crude front-month could reach $120 near term, while Wood Mackenzie floated $200 in an extreme case.3
The screen looks different now. ICE Brent crude front-month trades near $76.03, roughly $30 below the $105.61 it printed in May (2026-05-20), while NYMEX heating oil front-month sits around $3.55 and US diesel near $3.54.3 The premium those bullish forecasts were built on has drained out of crude.3
The physical recovery is the first thing being underweighted. Macquarie put total Gulf-country throughput at 65% of the pre-war level, about 8 million barrels a day down, with Gulf crude loadings near 68% and inbound vessels into the Mideast Gulf averaging roughly 10 million barrels a day of capacity since the memorandum of understanding was signed.5 More crude clearing Hormuz loosens the refining supply case rather than tightening it.5
Inventory direction is the second. Heading into the May reports, a Reuters poll expected U.S. crude stockpiles to fall by about 3.4 million barrels, framing a market drawing down under stress.3 With the scare fading and stocks no longer draining hard, a storage-driven bullish heating oil tag deserves scrutiny.3
The consensus already treated the premium as thin. Analysts pegged the geopolitical risk premium in oil at roughly $4 to $10 a barrel even at the height of the standoff.4 A majority of a Bloomberg Intelligence survey put ICE Brent crude front-month at $81 to $100 over the next 12 months, with most expecting disruptions of 3 million to 7 million barrels a day and few above 10 million.2 A market pricing crude capped near $100 is not the backdrop for a durable distillate squeeze.2
None of this rules out another flare-up. The May tape showed how fast a Hormuz headline moves prices, and the same ceasefire fragility lifted European TTF front-month gas 3% on Thursday (2026-05-21).1 But a storage-led bullish heating oil lean needs the physical grind to keep tightening, and Macquarie's numbers point the other way.5
A second consecutive weekly EIA crude build alongside Macquarie's traffic series climbing past 65% of pre-war throughput would confirm the premium is gone.3 A fresh Hormuz closure dragging Gulf loadings back below 68% would break the read.5 Until then, the heating oil bid looks like it is trading a war the ships have already started sailing away from.5