LNG Equipment Forecast Bets on a Chokepoint That Could Reopen in Weeks
Future Market Insights sees liquefaction gear demand compounding 8.2% a year through 2035, a decade-long call resting on a Hormuz supply shock measured in weeks.
Future Market Insights forecast the global LNG liquefaction equipment market will compound at 8.2% a year through 2035, with Asia-Pacific and North America absorbing most new infrastructure spending, in a report published on Friday (2026-05-29)3. The vendor pitch is efficient compression, lower downtime and scalability across mid- and large-scale plants3.
Equipment forecasts rarely move a trading screen. This one is worth reading because the demand case rests on a live supply shock, not a smooth build-out. Since the February 28 (2026-02-28) closure of the Strait of Hormuz, European and Asian gas prices have diverged from US prices, according to the EIA1. The closure cut off more than 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supply, roughly 20%, most of it from Qatar's Ras Laffan export complex1.
That is the reason a compressor vendor can pencil in a decade of 8% growth3. When a fifth of traded LNG goes offline, importers stop treating liquefaction capacity as someone else's problem1.
The price split is stark. The European TTF benchmark rose 35% above its pre-closure level for the week ending April 24 (2026-04-24), the EIA reported1. Henry Hub moved the other way, falling 9% since February 28 (2026-02-28) as ample seasonal storage and limited near-term export headroom kept US gas penned in at home1. Same commodity, opposite direction, one chokepoint.
US terminals were already running flat out before the disruption. Export terminal utilisation hit 94% of the maximum DOE-approved level in March, the EIA said, with exports rising from an estimated 17.3 Bcf/d in February at a 91% utilisation rate1. There is little slack to arbitrage the gap, and that bottleneck is what a liquefaction build-out is meant to relieve1.
Asian buyers are pulling hardest. A Nigerian LNG cargo originally bound for Europe was diverted to Asia after a price surge opened a profitable arbitrage, trendsnafrica.com reported2. Go Katayama, a principal insight analyst at Kpler, said the diversion reflected a widening arbitrage window between Atlantic and Pacific markets2. Qasim Afghan of Spark Commodities said front-month arbitrage opportunities had increased significantly, now favouring Asian buyers across several major routes2.
Those flows explain the geography in the forecast. Cargoes chase the Pacific premium, and the terminals and trains that feed them get built where the money points, which currently means Asia-Pacific demand pull and North American supply2,3. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, sat at $16.52 per MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-07-11), well above the European mark and tracking the arbitrage the analysts describe2.
But an equipment forecast built on a chokepoint is only as durable as the chokepoint. Analysts tie the squeeze to US-Iran tensions and a temporary Qatari production suspension, two factors that could ease as fast as they arrived2. If Hormuz reopens and Ras Laffan restarts, the 20% of supply that vanished returns1. FMI is forecasting through 2035 on a disruption measured in weeks3.
The near-term wall is US capacity, not new orders. Terminals at 94% utilisation cannot lift exports much regardless of how many trains are on order for the 2030s1. That leaves the thesis exposed to a timing mismatch: the shortage is now, the hardware lands years out, and the spot market clears in the meantime through cargo diversions rather than steel1,2.
Watch whether Qatari volumes come back and Hormuz traffic normalises2. TTF held near €48.80 per MWh at Friday's close (2026-07-11), still elevated, and the arbitrage that redirected the Nigerian cargo will keep pointing east until the two markets reconverge2. The report bets the world keeps needing more trains after this shock passes; the flows say the pressure is real for now, and a Hormuz reopening is the risk that would unwind it3.