BloombergNEF sees global nuclear capacity up 44% by 2036 as China passes US
A study published the week of 2026-07-06 puts global nuclear capacity at up to 535 GW by 2036, with China overtaking the US and India chasing a $204bn build-out.
A BloombergNEF study published the week of 2026-07-06 predicts global nuclear capacity will climb 44% over the next decade, reaching as much as 535 gigawatts by 2036, up from 372 GW in 2025.5 The number is a forecast, not a firm order book.5
For fuel markets, the direction of travel is what counts. China is set to overtake the US as the world's largest holder of nuclear capacity, while India plans to lift its fleet from 8.8 GW now to 100 GW by 2047.3,4 Both countries anchor the projected growth.3
India's target carries a price tag. A panel set up by the country's power ministry said reaching 100 GW would require as much as 19.28 trillion rupees, or $204bn, according to oilprice.com.4 State-owned NTPC, already India's biggest power generator, is expected to account for 30% of the new capacity.4
That commitment is already moving upstream. NTPC has begun searching for uranium assets overseas to secure long-term fuel supply, oilprice.com reported.4 It is currently the only nuclear operator in India besides the state-owned Nuclear Power Corporation.4
Washington is pushing in the same direction. The US government wants to quadruple nuclear capacity from roughly 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050 and is fast-tracking advanced reactor permits.1,2 Bank of America sees nuclear as a $10 trillion market opportunity.1 Microsoft, Amazon and Google have all signed deals with nuclear developers.2
The pull is coming from data centers. US data-center power demand alone is set to more than triple, from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW by 2035, according to the IEA, which put global data-center investment at roughly $580bn in 2024.2 Load growth on that scale sits behind much of the policy support.2
Europe has shifted its stance too. In March 2026, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the retreat from nuclear a strategic mistake and pledged €200m for small modular reactor development.2
The supply side is the bottleneck. Cameco produced about 17% of the world's uranium in 2024, second to Kazatomprom's 21%, with Orano next at 11%, according to figures cited via the World Nuclear Association.1 The Association expects uranium demand to climb about 28% by 2030 and more than 100% by 2040.1 Uranium, traded through the URA ETF, was one of the few energy names bid on 2026-07-11, up 1.15%.1
Cameco's position extends downstream. It owns a 49% stake in Westinghouse, which is designing a small modular reactor.1 As of 2026-05-21, Westinghouse was part of an $80bn agreement with the US government to build reactors for AI deployment.1
The gap between ambition and delivery remains the risk. The 44% figure is a modelling exercise, and reactor programmes have a long record of arriving late and over budget.5,3 China and India have built faster and cheaper than the West, but both face their own technology and fuel constraints.3
What converts the forecast into a market signal is procurement. Capacity projections move slowly; binding fuel contracts move prices.4 NTPC's hunt for overseas uranium is the first concrete step, and the initial cargo commitments from Indian state buyers will tell traders more than any 2047 target.4