Oil holds near $76 as traders bet a US-Iran deal survives a dead ceasefire

Oil holds near $76 as traders bet a US-Iran deal survives a dead ceasefire Brent's muted weekly gain says the market still expects a settlement, even as sanctions return and Hormuz stays choked. ICE Brent crude front-month traded near $76.60 a barrel on 2026-07-10, on course for a weekly gain after hostilities between the United States and Iran flared again earlier in the week, according to oilprice.com.⁶ The move was small given the news. President Trump declared the ceasefire over and reinstated U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude, yet price gains stayed limited, a reaction that reads as conviction the two sides will eventually agree a deal regardless of what their leaders say in public. ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson said vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels and that safe passage of ships is still an issue for the market.⁶ The physical record backs Patterson, not the price. Three supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of Middle East crude crossed Hormuz on 2026-05-20 after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months, according to CNBC. That is a release valve, not a return to normal flow.² The selloff that took Brent down to current levels ran on diplomacy, not barrels. Brent futures fell almost 6% to $104.64 on 2026-05-20 after Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages, the Guardian reported.³ CNBC put the same session's Brent decline at about 5%, to $105.61.² The sharpest leg came on the ceasefire itself. U.S. crude closed down 16.4% at $94.41 on 2026-05-20, its largest one-day decline since 2020, while Brent fell 13.3% to $94.75, according to NBC News.¹ Markets treated the truce as binary: war over, risk premium gone.¹ But the ceasefire never reopened the strait. Vessel tracking on 2026-05-18 showed just one ship leaving the Gulf and two entering across the whole day, thevibes.com reported.⁵ The disruption that justified the risk premium never lifted, even as the premium drained away.⁵ Some analysts flagged the gap in real time. Citi told clients on 2026-05-20 it expected Brent to reach $120 in the near term, arguing oil markets were underpricing the risk of prolonged supply disruption, while PVM warned global oil stocks could fall to critically low levels, according to CNBC.² Brent was above $105 when they wrote it and trades near $76 now. Early is not the same as wrong.^2,6 Goldman Sachs offers a more current marker. The bank raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $90 a barrel for Brent and $83 for WTI, citing reduced Middle East output, globalbankingandfinance.com reported.⁴ That sits well above where Brent trades now, a wide gap between a house forecast and spot.^4,6 The contrarian read is that peace-deal fatigue has left the market discounting physics. Iranian supply is under sanctions again, Hormuz throughput is still depressed, and the diplomatic track has produced headlines rather than restored shipping.⁶ What would settle it is data: renewed movement in U.S.-Iran talks, or Hormuz transit counts climbing back toward pre-war levels. Absent that, the market that shrugged off the ceasefire's collapse will have to decide what it is actually pricing.⁶