Shell's Q2 Trading Book Positioned for Windfall as Iran War Drove Record Oil and Gas Volumes
European oil majors outperformed US peers during Q2's price spike; Shell's integrated trading operations sat at the centre of a 62% surge in gas derivatives activity.
Oil markets now trade at $75.98 for ICE Brent crude front-month on Tuesday (2026-07-07), a price that masks what was one of the most lucrative quarters in recent memory for energy trading desks. As NATO leaders convene in Ankara to address the strategic fallout from the Iran conflict — including how exposed any wider coalition would be in the Strait of Hormuz — the trading windfalls accumulated during Q2's price surge are coming into focus.6
Brent crude front-month climbed from around $72 a barrel before the outbreak of the Iran war to nearly $120 at the peak, a surge of more than 55%, according to CNBC.3 That trajectory — steep ascent followed by the current pullback to near $75.98 — defined the Q2 environment for trading desks able to navigate both the upswing and the volatility along the way.
European oil majors were better positioned to capitalise than their American counterparts. The Economist reported that Exxon and Chevron benefited less from the Iran war than their European rivals, noting the conflict should in theory be a windfall for big oil.5 Shell, as Europe's largest integrated oil and gas trader, sat at the centre of that activity.
The gas derivatives market provided a second front for gains. European gas and power trading activity surged as markets priced in Iran war uncertainty, with the European Energy Exchange reporting a 62% jump in gas derivatives volumes. A total of 1,721 terawatt-hours of European gas derivatives traded in the first three months of 2026, Montel reported citing EEX data.1 Spot market volumes rose 9% to 972 TWh over the same period, while power derivatives climbed 29% to 3,238 TWh.1 Those volumes, combined with elevated prices running through the second quarter, created spread opportunities that integrated trading houses are designed to exploit.
The intraday swings were sharp enough to generate exceptional margins. ICE Brent crude front-month briefly touched $119 on May 14 (2026-05-14) before reversing after reports of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, settling at $108.65.2 European gas benchmarks spiked alongside crude on the same session, with TTF trading up more than 11% during the peak volatility.2 A company with Shell's scale in both crude and gas has multiple routes to capture that kind of volatility, whether through physical logistics, derivatives positioning or customer flow.
The war's impact on the energy complex was uneven. Oil prices posted a 7% weekly loss in early May (week of 2026-05-04) as markets struggled to price in conflicting signals from US-Iran talks, according to OilPrice.com.4 That confusion created its own trading opportunities. When prices are oscillating by several percent on diplomatic headlines, spread books and options desks generate returns independent of the overall direction of the market.
Jet fuel markets illustrated the same pattern. European spot premiums for jet fuel, which surged sharply when the war began, retreated to a $99 per metric tonne premium over ICE gasoil futures as supply risk moderated, according to Argus data.4 For a company with refining and products trading operations, capturing that spread before the unwind would have added meaningfully to Q2 results.
Gas storage created a further tailwind. Equinor warned that European inventories, sitting at around 34% full, were unlikely to reach the 80% target ahead of the next winter season.4 That scarcity signal kept European gas prices elevated through much of the quarter, sustaining the trading environment even as crude pulled back from its highs.
At Ankara on Tuesday (2026-07-07), NATO discussions include how exposed coalition naval assets would be in the Strait of Hormuz, a sign that the geopolitical backdrop has not fully resolved.6 ICE Brent front-month at $75.98 implies markets are pricing in substantial de-escalation from the war's peak. Shell's Q2 results will capture the quarter when that risk premium was at its height — and whether the Ankara summit adds friction or resolution will set the floor for H2 trading revenues.