U.S. Crude Inventory Deficit Deepens as SPR Drawdown Continues
EIA data show commercial crude stocks 7% below the five-year seasonal average, with total petroleum stocks 115.6 million barrels below year-ago levels.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 408.4 million barrels in the week ending June 26 — about 7 percent below the five-year seasonal average — after falling 3.8 million barrels from the prior week, the Energy Information Administration reported. Two weeks earlier, on June 19, combined U.S. crude holdings including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 743.3 million barrels.5
The SPR's own depletion runs deeper than the commercial draw. At 325.7 million barrels on June 26, the reserve has fallen from 331.2 million barrels on June 19, extending a year-long pattern of draws that has taken the reserve from 402.8 million barrels on June 27, 2025. Commercial stocks also stood at 419.0 million barrels on June 27, 2025, compared with 408.4 million barrels now.5
Total petroleum stocks — crude, motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillates and other products — came in at 1.527 billion barrels on June 26, down 6.3 million barrels week-on-week and 115.6 million barrels below year-ago levels. That year-on-year shortfall across the full product slate shows how broadly inventory has thinned over the past 12 months.5
Refinery demand has sustained the drawdown. Crude inputs to U.S. refineries averaged 17.2 million barrels per day in the week ending June 26, up 85,000 barrels per day from the prior week, with utilization at 96.6 percent of capacity. OilPrice.com reported in May 2026 that U.S. fuel demand was drawing down inventories at the quickest pace in nearly four decades.5,4
Distillate fuel inventories showed a partial offset, rising 2.5 million barrels in the week ending June 26 — though they still sit about 8 percent below the five-year seasonal average. Finished gasoline stocks fell. Propane built 1.3 million barrels and stands 33 percent above its five-year average, the one category running well ahead of seasonal norms.5
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $72.61 on July 7, and WTI crude front-month at $69.08 — well below the peaks of late May 2026, when Iran-related supply anxiety briefly pushed ICE Brent above $105 before U.S.-Iran ceasefire signals reversed the move. The market has largely unwound the geopolitical premium. The inventory deficit has not reversed with it.5,3,2
A Bloomberg Intelligence survey published in May 2026 found that a majority of market participants expected ICE Brent crude front-month to average $81 to $100 per barrel over the next 12 months. Most respondents anticipated global supply disruptions of 3 million to 7 million barrels per day. A quarter expected hedging and risk-management activity to increase, compared with 15 percent who anticipated more opportunistic risk-taking.1
The EIA projects U.S. crude production will reach a record 14.1 million barrels per day in 2027. That output growth, if sustained, could eventually narrow the inventory gap. But production gains take months to reach tank farms, and strong refinery demand is absorbing supply as fast as it materialises rather than allowing stocks to rebuild.1,5
At 325.7 million barrels, the SPR carries less cushion against a supply shock than it did when the reserve held 402.8 million barrels a year ago. Whether the 115.6-million-barrel year-on-year shortfall in total petroleum stocks stabilises or widens heading into the second half of 2026 will depend on production momentum and summer refinery run rates. The EIA's next weekly report, due July 8, provides the first read on volumes during the July 4 holiday period.5,1