Oil Heads for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Saudi Barrels Clear Hormuz
Saudi Arabia's resumed crude exports through a reopened Strait of Hormuz extend a four-week price slide, with ICE Brent front-month at $72.12.
Oil futures were on track for their fourth consecutive weekly loss on Friday (2026-07-03) as the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recovering Saudi exports continued to erode the supply-risk premium that had pushed ICE Brent crude front-month above $111 in mid-May. A shallow profit-taking bounce — both ICE Brent crude front-month and NYMEX WTI crude front-month gaining roughly 0.5% in Asian trade on Friday (2026-07-03) — left prices on course to close the week near Thursday (2026-07-03)'s settle levels, with U.S. markets shut for the July 4 holiday.5
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $72.12 as of Friday (2026-07-04)'s close, with NYMEX WTI crude front-month at $68.78. Both benchmarks sit well below their May peaks — a decline that has outpaced what even cautiously bearish analysts expected when ceasefire talks first gained credibility.5
The dominant physical development driving the sell-off is Saudi Arabia's export ramp-up through the now-accessible strait. Saudi Arabia is estimated to have pushed more than 10 million barrels of crude out of the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, with supertankers continuing to load at the Saudi port of Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, according to OilPrice.com. The speed of the rebound in Saudi flows has surprised parts of the market and accelerated the unwinding of the war premium.5
The Hormuz closure had begun effectively in February, with military action turning the waterway — through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flowed before the conflict — into a no-go zone for most commercial tankers. By mid-May, ICE Brent crude front-month topped $111 per barrel, with analysts at Citi forecasting a further climb to $120 and Wood Mackenzie warning that prices could approach $200 if the disruption proved prolonged. PVM analysts added that global oil stocks could reach critically low levels.1,3,4
The pivot came quickly. On Wednesday (2026-05-20), U.S. President Donald Trump said the war would end "very quickly" and that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages. ICE Brent crude front-month fell 5.97% that day, while NYMEX WTI crude front-month shed 6.23% — one of the sharpest single-session declines in recent memory, as traders rapidly repriced the conflict's expected duration.2
Three supertankers had already crossed the strait that same Wednesday (2026-05-20), carrying roughly six million barrels of Middle Eastern crude that had been stranded in the Gulf for over two months, according to CNBC. The resumption of physical flows validated the emerging bearish thesis: that disruption would be shorter than worst-case scenarios implied.1
Since then, market sentiment has turned decisively bearish. Some analysts argue it has overshot, with oil now in oversold territory given that the political risks around the US-Iran memorandum of understanding have not fully resolved. Whether sub-$73 ICE Brent crude front-month proves a floor or a mid-point in a further decline depends on the durability of the Hormuz reopening and the final terms of any permanent peace deal.5
Urals crude, the Russian benchmark, sits at $51.25 — a discount that expands as more Middle Eastern barrels return to global markets and compete for the Asian buyers that Russian grades have relied on throughout the post-invasion sanctions period.1
The profit-taking bounce on Friday (2026-07-03) morning was shallow and came on attenuated holiday volumes, limiting its signal value. With Saudi exports at pace through the strait and the US-Iran MoU still untested by a formal agreement, the first meaningful read on positioning will arrive when full market liquidity resumes during the week of Monday (2026-07-07).5