India Rebuilds Crude Stocks to Near 1-Year High on Record June Imports
India's combined crude oil inventories rose to 104 million barrels at the end of June, according to Kpler data, recovering sharply from 90.5 million barrels in late April and closing in on the pre-war peak of 107 million barrels recorded at the end of February. The rebound came as the country posted record monthly crude purchases.4
India imported 5 million barrels per day in June, the highest monthly intake on record. Russia supplied 2.6 million bpd of that flow — more than half the total — aided by a US waiver allowing purchases of Russian crude already loaded on tankers. That waiver has since expired.4
The inventory recovery is notable for its speed. When the Strait of Hormuz closure severed roughly 14 million barrels per day of global crude flow — around 14 percent of world output — Asian buyers scrambled to replace lost supply.3 Chinese refiners offer a useful point of comparison: Bloomberg reported in May that state-owned processors had slashed output to multiyear lows as shipments through Hormuz collapsed.1 India moved early to stockpile, and it shows in the Kpler figures.
Yet the strategic picture beneath the headline number is less reassuring. India's underground Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds capacity of just 5.33 million metric tons, equal to roughly 39 million barrels — about eight days of consumption at current import rates.4 The broader 104-million-barrel figure, combining strategic, commercial, and refinery storage, implies closer to three weeks of cover. That remains well below the 90-day emergency standard the International Energy Agency recommends, and India is not an IEA member.
Gulf supply dynamics complicate the outlook further. Kuwait's production has reportedly tripled over the past month to 1.65 million barrels per day, recovering from a low of around 580,000 bpd in May after drone attacks damaged port infrastructure during the Hormuz crisis.5 The speed of that swing is a reminder of how quickly physical availability can shift when infrastructure becomes a target. India's ability to replicate June's import pace depends on whether alternative corridors remain open at competitive prices.
The Russian channel, responsible for more than half of June's record intake, now faces compounding pressure. The US waiver covering already-loaded cargoes has lapsed. Separately, Washington imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on India over Russian oil purchases, and a congressional bill proposing levies of up to 500 percent on buyers of Russian crude is advancing.2 One trader estimated that Indian refiners have already cut new Russian contract volumes by 40 to 50 percent.2
The pricing arithmetic behind Russian crude remains compelling for now. Urals crude stood at $51.25 per barrel as of Friday (2026-07-03)'s close, a deep discount to ICE Brent crude front-month at $72.12. But the discount is only useful if cargoes can move without triggering secondary sanctions — an increasingly uncertain proposition for buyers trying to avoid US enforcement.2
India now holds roughly as much crude as it did before the Iran war began. Whether that cushion holds through July depends on what replaces the Russian volume that the expired waiver had covered and whether the Hormuz question resolves or deepens. The June import record was enabled by a specific, temporary window. The conditions that created it are gone.4