Aramco Pivots to Spot Sales as Saudi Crude Surges Through Reopened Hormuz
About 10 million barrels of Saudi crude have cleared the strait since it reopened, with August official selling prices expected to fall as Riyadh competes for Asian market share.
About 10 million barrels of Saudi crude have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, as supertankers resume loading at Ras Tanura and Riyadh shifts its commercial strategy to regain Asian market share after nearly three months of disruption.6
The move breaks from a period when Aramco was rerouting more than 5 million barrels per day through Red Sea terminals to maintain export volumes during the blockade. Saudi Arabia's return to Hormuz transit has coincided with a departure from its usual term-contract model: trade sources told Reuters on Thursday (2026-07-02) that Aramco has turned to spot sales for July-loading cargoes, an unusual step for a producer that typically sells crude under long-term deals at fixed differentials to benchmarks.6,2
The pricing has landed well for buyers in Asia. Spot cargoes for July loading are "very attractive" for Chinese refiners, a trade source told Reuters, and market participants expect that attractiveness to carry through to the official pricing mechanism. Refiners and traders anticipate Aramco will slash the official selling prices of its crude grades for August loading to Asian customers — a formal concession that would bring reference prices below recent term-contract levels and signal Riyadh's intent to defend volume over netback.6
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $71.56 on Thursday (2026-07-02) evening, down sharply from the roughly $85 a barrel recorded in mid-May when the blockade was near its peak severity. Dubai crude, the benchmark for sour Middle Eastern grades sold to Asian buyers, stood at $65.75 — a differential that could widen further if the expected OSP cuts materialise at scale.3
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day in normal operation, making it the single most consequential oil chokepoint in global energy. At the height of the blockade, which stretched to approximately 11 weeks, the constraint was estimated by industry sources to have removed nearly 100 million barrels from global supply for each week of disruption — a cumulative shortfall that Aramco's chief executive put at close to 1 billion barrels.4,12,3
During that period, Aramco operated at roughly 70 percent of its normal export capacity. The Red Sea route, along with the existing bypass infrastructure, enabled the company to sustain around 5 million barrels per day of exports through alternative channels. The UAE simultaneously accelerated plans to expand its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, targeting a doubling of its bypass capacity to between 3 million and 3.6 million barrels per day once a second pipeline is complete.2,15
The restoration of Hormuz access removes the physical constraint but creates a different commercial challenge. Producers who had been pricing into a scarcity environment must now compete for buyers who weathered months of supply disruption and higher delivered costs. Aramco's spot-sale strategy suggests Riyadh is prepared to move quickly — the attractiveness of the July cargoes for Chinese refiners appears designed to re-establish relationships and demonstrate value ahead of the August OSP announcement.6
The editorial question for the crude market is the pace at which Saudi export volumes normalise and whether OPEC+ uses the reopening to accelerate broader production increases already under discussion. August OSP decisions from Aramco — typically published in the first days of the preceding month — will give the clearest read on how aggressively the kingdom intends to compete on price to recapture market position. A deeper-than-expected cut would reinforce the bearish signal already embedded in the return to spot sales.6