Libya Hits Near-Record Output as Western Majors Deepen Waha Stakes
Libya's NOC reached 1.487 million bpd in June, closing in on its 1.5 million bpd target as Gulf supply disruptions reshape where oil comes from.
Libya's National Oil Corporation announced on Monday (2026-06-29) that the country's crude output has reached 1.487 million bpd, putting it within striking distance of its near-term target of 1.5 million bpd and on course to challenge production levels not seen since before the 2011 civil war.4
The announcement landed as OPEC published its latest long-term demand projections, raising its outlook for the third consecutive year to forecast global oil consumption rising by 19 million bpd, or 18%, by 2050.4 The combination gives Libya's output push unusual significance: more oil will be needed, and North African barrels are filling a gap left open by the Iran war's disruption of Gulf supply chains.
Libya's reserves underpin the ambition. The country holds roughly 48 billion barrels of proved crude — the largest endowment on the African continent — and its oil is high-quality light, sweet crude that commands a premium.4 Before Muammar Gaddafi was removed in 2011, Libya produced around 1.65 million bpd without strain.4 That benchmark makes the NOC's longer-range target of 2.1 million bpd — set for achievement within three years at its current trajectory — geologically credible, even if political risk remains the decisive variable.
The Gulf context matters. The EIA assessed that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 10.5 million bpd of crude production in April as the Iran war disrupted operations.3 The IEA said OPEC+'s share of global output fell to 44% in March from about 48% in February.2 Against that backdrop, Libya — which sits outside the principal zone of conflict — is drawing fresh attention from European majors as a reliable incremental source.
The Western investment trail is not new. In late 2021, Libya's Government of National Unity approved the sale of the 8.16% stake in the Waha oil concessions held by Hess Corporation to the remaining stakeholders: TotalEnergies, with a 16.3% share, and ConocoPhillips, also at 16.3%, each acquiring half of Hess's position.4 Waha is one of Libya's largest producing concessions, and the transaction quietly deepened European and American exposure to Libyan barrels at a time when Gulf access was becoming contested.
The broader OPEC+ framework is under strain from a different direction. The UAE officially left the organisation effective May 1, 2026, citing national interests as it sought to expand production beyond the group's quota constraints.2 Seven remaining members — Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, and Saudi Arabia — then agreed to raise their combined June production quota by 188,000 bpd.1 The structural coherence of OPEC+, always contested, is now openly under question, and Libya's willingness to ignore curtailment agreements entirely adds another variable to any supply calculus.
Libya's relationship with production discipline has historically been its own kind of unpredictability. Unlike Gulf producers bound by quota agreements, Libya has operated under a de facto exemption from OPEC+ curtailments for years, its output trajectory determined less by policy than by the state of its civil institutions, militia control over field infrastructure, and the pace of foreign investment. The current 1.487 million bpd figure is as much a political signal as an engineering achievement.4
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $73.00 on Monday (2026-06-29), down 0.19%, with WTI front-month at $70.67. The signal from Libya's output data — more barrels, more stably — sits in tension with the Gulf disruptions that have kept a floor under crude prices. A sustained move through the NOC's 1.5 million bpd threshold will test whether incremental Libyan supply has a measurable dampening effect, or whether continued Gulf uncertainty absorbs the additional barrels without moving the price level.
Whether Western majors accelerate stake-building in Waha and neighbouring concessions will indicate how seriously they are pricing Libya's political stability into long-term production projections.