Ukraine warns of "harsh winter" as Russian strikes hit gas infrastructure
An industry official says escalating attacks could force higher imports, even as European prices have made buying near-impossible at times.
Ukraine's gas market faces a "very harsh winter" ahead, an industry official told Montel News on Tuesday (2026-07-07), as escalating Russian strikes on energy infrastructure drive warnings that the country may need to significantly increase gas imports to meet heating season demand.6
The warning comes as Ukraine has set a storage target of 14.6 billion cubic metres, or 34% of underground storage capacity, by the start of the heating season, with a minimum threshold of 13.2 bcm (30% of capacity). The energy ministry announced those targets in May (2026-05-21), with Prime Minister Shmyhal citing wartime conditions and the accelerating pace of Russian attacks on gas infrastructure as justification for a larger-than-usual winter reserve.1
Ukraine's ability to meet those targets has been sharply constrained by the high cost of buying from European markets. In late March, import flows from Europe collapsed from 24 million cubic metres on Tuesday (2026-03-31) to just 0.8 mcm in the following session, the lowest in more than a year, as Kyiv-based consultancy ExPro data showed the price spread had turned sharply against Ukrainian buyers.5
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas traded at €46.88 per megawatt hour on Tuesday (2026-07-07), up 0.34% on the day, while UK NBP front-month rose 4.21% to €44.66. At those levels, Ukrainian import economics remain difficult. The country must finance purchases from a war economy running on limited hard currency and disrupted revenue streams.
Russian strikes on compressor stations and underground storage facilities have accelerated throughout 2026, pushing the energy ministry's contingency planning to account for outages that would have been unthinkable before the invasion. That pressure is explicit in the 13.2 bcm minimum threshold, which the ministry directly tied to "wartime conditions" in Shmyhal's announcement.1
Ukraine's most direct supply alternative closed when the Russian gas transit arrangement ended. The agreement, which had persisted through three years of full-scale war, was the channel through which piped Russian gas crossed Ukrainian territory to European customers. Russia had once supplied close to 40% of the European Union's pipeline gas; by 2023 that figure had fallen to roughly 8%, according to EU Commission data, as buyers rerouted to Norwegian pipeline and LNG supply.4
The EU's move to phase out piped Russian gas by 2027 has created concerns about informal supply continuing. A trader from Ukrainian firm D-Trading told Montel in May (2026-05-21) that some European buyers may find clandestine ways to keep receiving Russian supply after an official phase-out, potentially restoring volumes that neither Kyiv nor Brussels can easily monitor.2
Russia's own output is under pressure. Federal statistics data cited by Bloomberg in July 2025 showed production fell 3.2% year-on-year to approximately 334.8 billion cubic metres in the first half of 2025, with LNG production down 5.1% to roughly 16.5 million tonnes. Moscow has been directing remaining export capacity east: Power of Siberia pipeline volumes were projected to rise more than 20% in 2025, toward the line's maximum capacity of 38 billion cubic metres annually.3
Whether European gas prices ease enough by autumn to make Ukrainian imports commercially viable at scale, and whether underground storage survives further strikes in sufficient condition to hold what is bought, will determine the supply position heading into the heating season.