LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Triples in June as Ceasefire Holds
Vessel tracking data show 27 LNG crossings so far this month, more than three times May's total, though insurance costs and physical constraints limit the pace of recovery.
LNG vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz more than tripled in June compared with May, vessel tracking data showed on Friday (2026-06-26), marking the clearest indicator yet that cargo flows are recovering since the US-Iran ceasefire halted hostilities in the region.7
The surge to 27 crossings this month reflects growing operator confidence in the durability of peace negotiations, even as conditions in the strait remain far from routine.7 The waterway carries roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and its disruption earlier this year rippled through commodity markets from Rotterdam to Tokyo.4
The crude oil tanker movements of mid-May told a more cautious story. Three supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Gulf crude — including Iraqi Basrah Medium and Emirati Upper Zakum grades — exited the strait in the week of May 11 with their transponders switched off, according to shipping data from Kpler and LSEG released on Monday (2026-05-18).5,3 Two of the vessels were very large crude carriers: the Agios Fanourios I and the Kiara M, each carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude and completing their passages on Sunday (2026-05-17). A San Marino-flagged tanker moved another 2 million barrels of Basrah crude through the strait around the same time, with its discharge destination undisclosed.3
Sailing in dark mode was a considered decision. Insurance markets had effectively priced out most of the strait's risk-transfer capacity by that point: carriers still willing to write war-risk cover raised rates from 0.2-0.4 percent of vessel value to 1 percent or more, with the riskiest voyages attracting premiums of 10 percent, according to analysis from mid-May (2026-05-19).6 An analyst at consultancy Global Risk Management said on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that LNG shipping specifically might take several days to resume even after the ceasefire announcement, citing security concerns and logistical constraints at terminals.1
European gas prices reflected that uncertainty. ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 2.2 percent on Thursday (2026-05-21) as traders priced in the gap between a ceasefire on paper and restored physical flows.2 The concern was grounded in practical realities: repairs to piers and loading equipment at disrupted terminals typically take months, and the war-risk insurance market's partial withdrawal had already raised the cost floor for any cargo attempting the crossing.6
The supply math behind that anxiety was severe. With Ras Laffan, Qatar's primary LNG export hub, disrupted, the global gas market was losing close to 2 percent of annual supply for every month the facility remained shut.6 One estimate published in May put planned global oil output for 2026 some 3 percent below target as a direct consequence of the disruption.6
The June recovery in LNG crossings suggests those worst-case trajectories are not materialising. As of Friday's close (2026-06-27), ICE Brent crude front-month was priced at $73.08 per barrel and JKM Asian LNG front-month at $15.52 per million British thermal units — levels that embed assumptions about sustained, if cautious, passage continuing into the second half of the year.
Iran's role as gatekeeper has not ended. Malaysia was among the countries seeking transit clearance from Tehran for specific vessels — Serifos, chartered by Thai state energy firm PTT, was listed among seven vessels for which Malaysia sought Iranian approval, according to two people familiar with the matter.4 The process of vessel-by-vessel clearance is itself a constraint on how quickly traffic can normalise.
The pace of crossing growth over the remainder of June will indicate how much of the tripling reflects pent-up demand being released rather than a durable new equilibrium. War-risk insurance premiums, which remain elevated from their pre-crisis levels, are the most liquid real-time signal for how the market prices the risk of another disruption.