Qatar LNG Restart on Track for Q3 as GECF Head Signals Hormuz Reflow
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum says global LNG markets should rebalance this quarter as the Strait of Hormuz stays open and Ras Laffan begins restart testing.
Natural gas markets are on course to return to balance in the third quarter of the year as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said on Thursday (2026-06-25). The GECF, which groups producer countries controlling as much as 70% of global natural gas resources, framed its outlook around the strait staying open — the pivotal condition for every Qatari restart timeline.6 ICE Endex TTF front-month fell 3.34% to €41.14/MWh as traders priced in a faster-than-expected supply recovery.
Qatar's Ras Laffan facility normally supplies roughly 17% of the world's LNG, and when Iranian missiles struck the complex in March 2026, two of its 14 liquefaction units were knocked out — removing approximately 17% of Ras Laffan's nameplate capacity, equivalent to about 3% of global LNG supply.3 Qatar accounts for around 20% of total global LNG supply, meaning even a partial resumption shifts the supply-demand balance materially for European and Asian import markets.2
Physical evidence of progress had emerged by late May. Wood Mackenzie research analyst Nadeem Ahmed said on Wednesday (2026-05-20) he had observed heat signatures at train 2 — capacity 3.3m tonnes per annum (4.5bcm/year) — for the first time since the missile strikes, a likely sign that commissioning tests had begun.4 The facility's southern section showed similar signals around the same period, suggesting a sequenced restart rather than a simultaneous ramp across all affected units.
The pace will still be measured in weeks, not days. The Economist reported in late May that resumption "is likely to take weeks, and to cost much more than before the war," noting that vessels positioned near the strait to restock supply chains remain sparse.3 Kpler's Sumit Ritolia estimated collective throughput through the strait ran about 4.2m barrels per day lower in April than in February — a near-15% cut across affected flows.3 The strait reopening clears the shipping corridor. It does not fix the liquefaction trains.
Asian LNG markets are already pricing in the recovery scenario. JKM spot stood at $15.55/MMBtu on Thursday (2026-06-25), with directional signals skewing bearish on supply restoration expectations.6 The market appears to be betting that Qatari volumes reach northeast Asian buyers before European injection demand peaks. Whether that confidence holds depends on how many trains clear commissioning without delay — a process that in Qatar's industrial history has rarely moved on political timelines.
European buyers face a more constrained picture in the interim. Two substitution options assessed in May both turned out limited. Norway could add at most a "modest" 1bcm of gas exports to Europe if Qatar's return lags, one analyst told Montel on Tuesday (2026-05-19) — meaningful but far short of replacing even one Ras Laffan train.1 US exporters are unlikely to push throughput higher quickly; the only realistic mechanism, deferring scheduled maintenance at export terminals, risks longer-term reliability damage.2
When analysts surveyed in March 2026 modelled a three-month Qatari halt, the average of their projections put TTF approaching EUR 100/MWh.5 With ICE Endex TTF front-month now at €41.14 and the GECF pointing to Q3 normalisation, that tail scenario has receded sharply. But the gap between those projections and current prices reflects how much supply-recovery confidence is now embedded in the European gas curve, and how quickly it could unwind if the restart slips behind schedule.
The next concrete marker is commissioning progress at Ras Laffan. Train 2 heat readings in late May were encouraging. Whether the second damaged unit clears testing on the same schedule, and whether the ceasefire holds long enough for the first post-restart cargoes to load and transit the strait without incident, will determine whether the GECF's Q3 call proves accurate or premature.