EU LNG Import Mix Shifts Sharply Toward United States as Hormuz Disruption Redirects Cargoes
Bloomberg's Javier Blas reports the EU sourced 59% of its LNG from the US in early 2026, rising to 64% in April, as Qatar supply routes remained disrupted.
The European Union sourced 59% of its LNG imports from the United States in the early months of 2026, with that share climbing to 64% in April, Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas reported in a recent column. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas traded at €40.79 on Thursday (June 25), well below its spring peak, as markets recalibrated around new trade flows that took shape after the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28 (2026).5
The rerouting reflects how quickly LNG trade flows shift when a chokepoint closes. Damage at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply from the market, while the Hormuz closure disrupted normal Qatar-to-Asia delivery routes.4 Europe, which under normal conditions sources just 13% of its LNG imports from Qatar, became the default destination for US cargoes that might otherwise have sought higher Asian netbacks.7
Prices for natural gas in Europe and Asia diverged from those in the United States following the February 28 (2026) Hormuz closure, the EIA reported in mid-May (2026).5 That divergence provided the economics for US export cargoes to clear into European ports, and the new supply pattern has proved durable enough to push the US share of EU LNG imports to levels not previously recorded.7,6
Asian buyers have not ceded the ground. JKM, the benchmark for LNG delivered to northeast Asia, stood at $15.55 per million British thermal units on June 25, reflecting continued supply competition from Asian importers still rebuilding stocks after the Hormuz disruption.5 That premium keeps US export capacity contested between Atlantic and Pacific Basin buyers. Small shifts in the arb window can rapidly redirect cargoes, which is why European buying patterns could change quickly if Qatari routes reopen or Asian demand softens.7
The underlying US supply position supports the export pace. Marketed natural gas production in the Lower 48 averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% from the same period in 2025, the EIA reported.3 The agency forecast 3% production growth for the full year 2026, driven by the Permian Basin, which it expects to produce 29.2 Bcf/d, or 6% above 2025 levels.3 Haynesville, a gas-dominant basin, is projected to grow output by 6% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.3
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas traded at $3.25 on June 25, up 0.31% on the day. Storage data for the week ending in mid-May (2026) showed a 52 billion cubic feet withdrawal, far below the five-year average withdrawal of 168 Bcf.1 Inventories ran 141 Bcf above year-ago levels, roughly 8% higher than the same period in 2025.1,2 The domestic surplus has kept Henry Hub from responding aggressively to export demand, since upstream volumes have grown fast enough to accommodate both injection-season storage builds and elevated feedgas flows to US LNG terminals.4
Feedgas flows to US export terminals have stayed elevated alongside the export surge, and NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures cleared the 50-day moving average, described by analysts as the first clean technical signal that buyers are willing to take out offers.4 Whether follow-through buying materializes depends on weather forecast verification and continued storage tightening.4
For European buyers, 59-64% US sourcing replaces Qatari and Russian pipeline concentration with a different set of risks: Gulf Coast weather events, terminal maintenance windows, and US pipeline constraints rather than Strait of Hormuz closures.6 Ras Laffan was still running at reduced capacity as of mid-May (2026), with no public timeline for restoration, per available reporting.4 Any clarity on the facility's repair schedule would shift the competitive balance for both Asian and European cargoes, and with it the split between US and Qatari supply that now defines European LNG procurement.