Tanker owners reaped record war-risk premiums as Hormuz reopened in May
The three supertankers that went dark to exit the Strait of Hormuz in mid-May crystallised the insurance and toll economics that made shipowners the financial winners of the crisis.
Three supertankers carrying Iraqi and Emirati crude switched off their transponders and slipped through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 11, 2026 — the first significant commercial passages since the effective closure of the waterway in late February.3 That movement, tracked by Kpler and LSEG after the vessels reactivated their signals, marked what shipping markets had been waiting for: proof that passage was possible, even at price.
The financial terms were steep. War-risk insurance, which had run at 0.2-0.4% of vessel value before the conflict, climbed to 1% per voyage according to Argus Media, making a round trip for a standard $150 million tanker worth $1.5 million in insurance alone.5 U.S., U.K., and Israeli-affiliated vessels faced premiums as high as 5% of hull value — up to $7.5 million per voyage — according to The National's insurance market report from May 17, 2026.7 Iran compounded the toll structure with transit fees of up to $2 million per ship, payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan, a levy the shipping industry termed the Hormuz Toll.7
The Malta-flagged Odessa, one of the three vessels confirmed transiting during that week, delivered 1 million barrels of crude to Daesan on South Korea's west coast after completing the crossing.3 Serifos, chartered by Thai state-owned energy firm PTT, was among seven vessels for which Malaysia had sought Iranian clearance to transit the strait, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Reuters via Kpler and LSEG data.2 Each of the supertankers carried capacity for up to 2 million barrels.2
The physical flows arrived against a backdrop of sharp oil price moves. NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures had settled at $97.91 on Thursday May 14, 2026, a gain of $6.79 or 7.45% for that week, as traders priced in tightening supply from the Strait's de facto closure.6 From those peaks, ICE Brent crude front-month has since retreated to $74.00 and NYMEX WTI to $69.92 as of June 24, 2026 — a decline of roughly 25-30% as ceasefire developments and the initial tanker transits shifted market expectations.
Analysts at the time were split on how durable the reopening would prove. Montel's Plugged In podcast from May 21, 2026 captured the divide: some analysts read the tanker transits as the start of a gradual normalisation, others pointed to the insurance market remaining essentially frozen for any vessel with U.S., U.K., or Israeli affiliations.1 The Economist's reporting from May 19, 2026 noted that "too many unknowns," in the words of Kpler's Matt Wright, would prolong caution among operators even with the ceasefire nominally in place.4
The gas market added a separate complication. Ras Laffan, Qatar's liquefaction facility that normally handles around 17% of global LNG supply, had taken missile strikes early in the conflict, with two of its 14 liquefaction units knocked out — roughly 3% of global LNG supply capacity removed in one event.4 That damage is not repaired with a ceasefire announcement; restarting complex liquefaction infrastructure takes months, Argus Media has noted. With JKM Asian LNG front-month at $15.74 as of June 24, 2026, the market has partially unwound the crisis premium, but the Ras Laffan supply hole remains a separate structural question from the Strait's navigability.
Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia estimated in May that collective throughput through the Strait would end up 4.2 million barrels per day lower in April than in February — a reduction of nearly 15%.4 Even after the ceasefire and initial tanker transits, the Economist observed that Brent remained 30% above pre-war levels and 60% above analysts' January forecasts for that point in the year.4 The gap between passage resuming and prices fully normalising reflected the insurance market's own assessment of how durable the ceasefire would prove.
For shipowners operating outside the U.S.-U.K.-Israeli flag-state restrictions, the risk-reward in May was unusually favorable. War premiums at 1% of hull value compared to freight rates elevated by the same supply crunch meant the economics of taking a passage justified the risk in a way ordinary market conditions rarely produce. The vessels that transited during the week of May 11, 2026 set the price for what came after. Whether the current ICE Brent level at $74.00 reflects a market that now considers passage routine — or one that has simply priced in a fragile status quo — will depend on whether the insurance market follows crude lower.