Oil Tankers Resume AIS Broadcasts at Hormuz as Traffic Slowly Recovers
Vessels are transmitting again after weeks of dark transits, but elevated war-risk insurance and LNG shipping delays signal a fragile reopening.
Oil tankers broadcasting their position and intention to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have multiplied in recent hours, shipping data show, marking the first sustained return to normal transponder behaviour since Iran imposed controls over the chokepoint. ICE Brent crude front-month slipped 0.49% to $76.62 as of Wednesday (2026-06-24) as markets read the development as tentative evidence that Gulf supply disruption is easing.6
The shift from dark-mode transits to open AIS signals matters for what it signals about insurance and freight markets, not simply for Wednesday's (2026-06-24) barrel count. War-risk insurance rates surged from 0.2-0.4% of vessel value to 1% or more at the height of the crisis, with the riskiest voyages attracting premiums above 10%, according to the Economist. Those costs do not compress overnight.5
At the worst of the disruption, vessels were exiting the strait with transponders switched off. Kpler and LSEG data published on Monday (2026-05-18) confirmed three crude tankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Gulf crude had transited without broadcasting. Two VLCCs — Agios Fanourios I and Kiara M — passed through on Sunday (2026-05-17), each carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude. A third San Marino-flagged vessel, carrying 2 million barrels of Basrah crude, exited the strait with its discharge destination unclear.3
The move to open broadcasting now suggests ship operators are sufficiently confident in ceasefire terms to forgo dark-mode cover. But confidence is uneven. Malaysia had sought Iranian clearance for seven vessels, including the Serifos — chartered by Thai state-owned PTT — to transit the strait, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Reuters and tracked by LSEG and Kpler. That formal clearance process implies operators are not yet treating passage as a right rather than a negotiation.4
LNG is the segment where recovery is slowest. An analyst with Global Risk Management told Montel on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that Hormuz LNG shipments could take several days to resume because of lingering security concerns, even after the ceasefire announcement. Ras Laffan, Qatar's main LNG export terminal, was idled by the disruption. Each month the facility stays offline, the world loses close to 2% of annual gas supply, the Economist calculated.1,5
European gas markets were already pricing in uncertainty about the pace of reopening. ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 2.2% on Thursday (2026-05-21) as doubts mounted about how quickly normal Hormuz transits would resume, Montel reported. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €42.02 as of Wednesday morning (2026-06-24). JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $15.74 — a sharp retreat from the levels prevailing during peak disruption, when the strait's closure raised the prospect of supply rationing across Northeast Asia.2
The broader output drag from the crisis has been substantial. Disruption to Gulf export infrastructure shaved roughly 3% from planned global oil output this year, according to the Economist; even if Qatar resumed full output immediately, production would run approximately 4% short of demand for 2026 as a whole.5
Crude markets have absorbed the partial reopening with muted optimism. WTI crude front-month traded at $72.47 on Wednesday (2026-06-24), down fractionally. The contained price move suggests traders are applying a meaningful probability discount to the pace of full traffic restoration. War-risk insurance markets are the near-term indicator: rate compression there would confirm that underwriters, not just vessel operators, believe the passage has stabilised.6