EU paid Russia EUR 2.9bn for LNG in Q1 as Moscow signs Power of Siberia 2 deal with Beijing

EU paid Russia EUR 2.9bn for LNG in Q1 as Moscow signs Power of Siberia 2 deal with Beijing European imports of Russian LNG rose in early 2026 even as Moscow signed a pipeline memorandum to lock in Chinese demand for years. EU countries paid Russia EUR 2.9bn for around 5.1m tonnes of LNG in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4.3m tonnes a year earlier, environmental group Urgewald said on Friday (2026-05-15).¹ The figures show how far Europe still leans on Russian gas, even as the bloc has worked to cut its dependence since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.¹ The flows run through a single chokepoint. Urgewald said 97% of all Yamal Arctic LNG deliveries in Q1 2026 went to the EU, calling Europe "the indispensable market for Russia's flagship LNG project."¹ Russian LNG output has already slipped 5.1% so far this year, to around 16.5m tonnes, according to federal statistics cited by Bloomberg.² Those volumes landed while European prices stayed elevated. ICE Endex TTF front-month was quoted at €40.64/MWh as of Friday's close (2026-06-20), below winter peaks but above pre-crisis levels. [LIVE PRICES] Storage builds and soft demand have capped the upside, yet the reliance on Russian molecules that Urgewald flagged has not gone away.¹ Moscow, for its part, is moving to lock in other buyers. On Tuesday (2026-05-19) Russia said it had signed an agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.³ The memorandum envisions a 2,600km line carrying up to 50 bcm a year from the Yamal Peninsula to northern China via eastern Mongolia.⁴ The project would redraw global gas flows. If PoS-2 is built, China could import more than 100 bcm of Russian gas after 2030, over a fifth of its projected demand that year.⁴ Exports through the existing Power of Siberia line are projected to rise more than 20% this year, to its 38 bcm annual ceiling.² The deal is thin on specifics. The head of Gazprom "says it has a deal" but many questions remain unanswered, the AP reported on Tuesday (2026-05-19).⁵ Analysts cited by the AP said the announcement mainly let Russia and China advertise a closer relationship, and let Beijing snub US LNG arriving by ship.⁵ China holds the leverage. Russian gas production fell 3.2% in the first half of the year, to about 334.8 bcm, as European buyers cut purchases.² Higher Chinese offtake has not come close to replacing the volumes that once flowed west by pipeline.² For Europe, the Ukraine transit route is a separate clock. The five-year transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow expires at the end of 2026, with Ukraine's fees initially expected to total $7.15bn over the contract's life.⁶ Naftogaz has said Azerbaijan could supply "only 2 bcm of the 14 bcm that the EU receives via the Ukraine pipeline" in the short term, according to Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.⁶ European buyers face a squeeze from both ends. If the Ukraine route closes and PoS-2 pulls Russian volumes east, the Atlantic basin will have to compete harder for cargoes.⁴ JKM was quoted at $15.31/MMBtu against TTF at €40.64/MWh as of Friday's close (2026-06-20), an Asian premium that has narrowed as European demand softened but could widen again fast. [LIVE PRICES] Two signals are pulling in opposite directions. Europe keeps importing near-record Russian LNG, handing the Kremlin EUR 2.9bn in three months.¹ Moscow is laying the groundwork to send 50 bcm a year east, a shift that would tighten Atlantic LNG supply for years.⁴ When those two trends collide is what gas desks will be pricing next.⁴