European buyers lift Russian Arctic LNG imports 18% even as EU bans terminal services
Brussels banned LNG terminal services for Russian firms last month, yet Arctic LNG flows into Europe climbed nearly 18% through May, with a hard 2027 ban looming.
The European Union on Thursday (2026-05-21) adopted a ban on LNG terminal services for Russian companies, alongside a prohibition on maintenance for the country's LNG tankers and icebreakers, the European Commission said as part of its latest sanctions package, Montel reported.1
The measure lands at an awkward moment. Through May (2026), European imports of Russian liquefied natural gas from the Arctic rose nearly 18%, data compiled by Urgewald show, with Spain the biggest buyer. The German group, which tracks Russian energy finances, called the flows a multibillion-euro windfall for Moscow. A complete EU ban on Russian LNG takes effect from 2027. Until then, said Sebastian Rötters, a sanctions analyst at Urgewald, everybody is trying to get as much gas as they can.1
That surge runs against the broader story of Russia's retreat from European energy. Russian gas now accounts for just 18% of EU imports, down from 45% in 2021, while Russian oil has fallen to 3% of the bloc's imports from around 30% over the same period, according to projections compiled by Russia's economy ministry.3,2
LNG is where the relationship persists. Moscow now expects its LNG exports to edge up 3% this year to 35.7 million tonnes, even as pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union fall 10.7% from 2024 to 72 billion cubic metres, the ministry's figures show.3
The money has not followed the volume. Gazprom booked a loss of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, after the rupture with its biggest export market. Russian gas output reached about 334.8 bcm by June, down 3.2% year on year, federal data show.3,4
The pivot east covers only part of the gap. Exports through the Power of Siberia pipeline are projected to rise more than 20% this year to a maximum capacity of 38 bcm, a fraction of the volume Russia once piped west. A second pipeline to China remains a Gazprom announcement with the commercial details unresolved, leaving Beijing the stronger party at the table.4,6
Russia's own LNG output tells a more constrained story than its export ambitions. Production fell 5.1% to around 16.5 million tonnes over the period, federal statistics show, as Western sanctions on liquefaction equipment bite. European buyers chasing Arctic cargoes are competing for a shrinking export pool.4
The remaining pipeline customers are still drifting away. Slovakia, one of Gazprom's last major EU clients, is ready to sign a long-term supply contract with Azerbaijan, its deputy prime minister said.7
Prices give buyers little reason to ease off. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded near €44 a megawatt-hour on Monday (2026-06-15), well below the crisis peaks that drove the original push to cut Russia off, while the Asian JKM benchmark sat around $18.85 per million British thermal units. European terminals are pulling cargoes through the summer storage-refill window, when the bloc has to rebuild stocks ahead of winter.5
Enforcement is the variable for the next 18 months. The terminal-services and tanker-maintenance bans adopted on Thursday (2026-05-21) target the logistics around Russian LNG rather than the cargoes themselves, and the binding prohibition only arrives in 2027. Whether flows into Spain and other buyers actually fall before then, or simply re-route through the gap between sanctions on paper and barrels on the water, is what traders will be watching.1