Gazprom's Balkan Presence Shrinks to Two Customers as Bulgaria Completes Russian Gas Exit

Bulgaria no longer buys Russian gas. The country, which sourced 95% of its volumes from Gazprom under contracts requiring 80% minimum offtake through 2022, declared complete diversification after the Trans Adriatic Pipeline began delivering Azerbaijani supplies in January 2021. Former Prime Minister Borissov framed the shift as a strategic break. For Gazprom, it meant losing a captive market it had held for decades. The commercial damage extends well beyond Sofia. Russian pipeline volumes to the EU have fallen from roughly 150 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 38 bcm in 2025, and Russia's share of EU gas supply has dropped from 40% to 12% over the same period. Most remaining Russian molecules now arrive as LNG rather than pipeline gas. Of four pre-war pipeline corridors into Europe, only one still carries meaningful volumes. That corridor is Balkan Stream, running through Turkey and Bulgaria into Serbia and Hungary. Gazprom ships approximately 16 bcm annually along this route — its sole active land connection to European buyers. Serbia has secured continued deliveries while simultaneously expanding its Azerbaijani intake. Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović Handanović confirmed volumes from Azerbaijan doubled over three years to 2 million cubic meters per day in 2025, with further increases under negotiation with Baku. Azerbaijan exported 6.5 bcm globally in the first quarter of 2026, including 3 bcm to Europe. The Southern Gas Corridor supplying that volume traces back to a European Commission designation in 2008, when Brussels identified Caspian gas as its highest energy security priority. Earlier pipeline concepts like Nabucco collapsed on insufficient supply commitments, while alternative routes through Iran, Iraq and Turkmenistan never materialized. Croatia's Krk floating LNG terminal adds further optionality to the region. Operational since 2021 with 2.6 bcm annual capacity, the facility handles U.S. LNG imports and enables reverse flows to Hungary and Ukraine. Its capacity exceeds Croatia's entire 2019 Russian import volume of 2.82 bcm, leaving room to supply regional buyers. Gazprom's financial position has deteriorated alongside its market share. Revenue fell to 8.5 trillion rubles in 2023 from 11.7 trillion the previous year, with gas production down 13% to 359 bcm. The 40% price discount Bulgaria received in spring 2020 — presented as a gesture of goodwill — looks in retrospect like a sign of eroding leverage as Azerbaijani supply neared readiness. The EU has set a hard deadline. New Russian pipeline and LNG contracts are already banned, and existing agreements must terminate by December 31, 2027. Nadežda Kokotović, CEO of the Brussels Energy Club and a former NIS representative, acknowledged the revenue impact on Russia will be significant but questioned whether reduced European payments will change Russian policy behavior. The immediate focus is Serbia. President Vučić traveled to Baku for the May 13th World Urban Forum, where bilateral energy talks were expected to formalize expanded Azerbaijani volumes. Hungary remains the last substantial Gazprom customer in the region with no announced replacement plan. The 2028 deadline gives Budapest roughly eighteen months to arrange alternative supply — a timeline that will concentrate minds in both Vienna and Baku.