U.S. refiners tilt toward jet fuel as Hormuz closure drains the barrel

U.S. refiners tilt toward jet fuel as Hormuz closure drains the barrel A first-quarter price surge after the Strait of Hormuz shut has pushed US refiners to favour jet fuel, with seaborne exports up three-fifths. US seaborne jet fuel exports have grown by three-fifths, to 280,000 b/d, with 110,000 b/d reaching Europe on average in March and April, according to The Economist.³ The flow tracks a first-quarter surge in crude and petroleum product prices that the EIA tied to the February 28 military action in the Middle East and the subsequent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.¹ Jet fuel has become the tightest corner of the oil complex, and US refiners have leaned into the most profitable barrel. The closure shut in 10.5 million barrels per day of crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain, the EIA estimated, stripping refiners of feedstock and lifting product prices.^5,1 The price signal was loud, then choppy. ICE Brent crude front-month fell 5% to $105.61 on Wednesday (2026-05-20) after President Donald Trump again said the Iran war would end "very quickly", even as traders stayed wary of the peace talks, according to CNBC.² U.S. crude stockpiles were expected to have fallen by about 3.4 million barrels in the latest weekly EIA data, a Reuters poll showed.² US producers cannot close the gap quickly. Ramping up shale output takes three to six months and will probably yield just 3 million b/d of extra capacity, The Economist reported, while Saudi and Emirati surplus capacity sits behind the blockade.⁴ Morgan Stanley estimates a floating buffer of crude on tankers has supplied over 3 million b/d since early March, a stopgap rather than a fix.⁴ That leaves the export pull doing the heavy lifting. For US Gulf Coast refiners, the incentive is to keep crude runs high and lift the jet cut while the export premium holds, with shipments running well above the pre-crisis trickle.³ Analysts are still pricing more upside than downside. Citi said on Tuesday (2026-05-19) it expected ICE Brent crude front-month to rise to $120 a barrel in the near term, arguing oil markets are underpricing the risk of prolonged disruption, while Wood Mackenzie estimated the contract could approach $200 if the strait stays shut.² PVM analysts said global oil stocks could reach critically low levels.² For now the export ramp is a partial buffer, not a floor under supply. The number to watch is not headline jet output but the pace at which commercial inventories rebuild from current lows, and whether US shale capacity arrives before the next demand peak drains them again.^4,3