German Q2 Power Seen Rising 17% as Gas Crisis Drags Spot Higher

German Q2 Power Seen Rising 17% as Gas Crisis Drags Spot Higher Montel-surveyed analysts forecast a 17% year-on-year jump in German Q2 spot power, with gas up 40%, even as solar and weaker demand cap the move. German Q2 spot power prices could climb 17% from a year earlier, analysts told Montel in the week of 2026-05-18, as the gas market crisis works its way through to the power curve. The same survey put Q2 gas up 40% on the year, averaging EUR 46.35/MWh, a rise of EUR 13.20 from Q2 2025.³ German baseload sits at the centre of Europe's most liquid power complex, so a gas-driven move of this size resets the marginal cost of generation across the Continent. The current curve already reflects it: German Power Q+1 trades at €102.78 and the day-ahead at €88.17, against a Cal+1 of €93.67.³ The driver is gas, not power-specific scarcity. Montel's analysts framed the Q2 strength as a pass-through from the gas crisis rather than an independent power story, with the caveat that stronger solar generation and softer demand should limit the gains.³ Weather has been tightening the near term. Germany's power margin, the spare supply available to meet demand, was set to drop in the week of 2026-05-18 to its lowest level so far this winter as low wind speeds and colder weather strained the system, according to models compiled by Bloomberg. Wind dipped again that week, leaning the grid harder on thermal plant.⁶ Our own momentum read captures the tension. German baseload front-month carries a mixed directional bias, with bullish weight at 1.050 only modestly ahead of bearish at 0.885 across nine signals. Heat is high; the trend is not one-way.³ The bull case rests on the gas pass-through and a thin margin. If wind stays low and the gas complex holds its bid, the marginal gas plant sets a higher clearing price and the front of the curve grinds up. TTF front-month is quoted at €48.40 in our verified feed, with NBP close behind at €48.32.^3,6 The bear case is the cap. Solar build-out and demand erosion are doing real work. Germany generated only 238 billion kWh of green-eligible output in 2021 against 250 billion the year before, and the renewable share slipped from 46% to 42%, BDEW data cited by WattsUpWithThat showed, a reminder that the transition's contribution swings year to year.⁵ Negative prices tell the other half. Germany has spent roughly $200 billion over two decades promoting cleaner electricity, and the result is a system that now swings to negative spot prices when renewable output overwhelms demand, the New York Times reported via EnergyInDemand. A grid capable of going negative on a sunny, windy afternoon is the same grid that spikes when the wind drops.⁴ The cross-sector read runs through carbon. A bullish Germany feeds a baseload move that pulls on EUA demand and back through to gas, with our signal chain flagging the linkage from German power to EUA Dec-rolling and TTF. The carbon proxy in our feed sits at €75.45.³ There is a US gas crosscurrent worth one line. June NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas settled at $2.96/MMBtu by Friday (2026-05-15), up 2.3% on the day and about 7.4% on the week, with weekly LNG vessel departures of 141 Bcf, up 26 Bcf, TradingView and the Globe and Mail reported. That feeds German prices only through the Atlantic LNG arbitrage into TTF, and at current TTF levels it is a marginal input rather than a driver.^1,2 For traders the question is whether the gas pass-through outlasts the solar and demand offset into the back half of Q2. A 40% year-on-year gas move is the engine; how much reaches power depends on wind and sun.³ Watch the German margin first. Another week of low wind like the one flagged for the week of 2026-05-18 keeps the front bid; a return of breeze and a strong solar run reopens the negative-price tail. The curve is already carrying a Q+1 premium of nearly €15 over day-ahead, and that spread is where the disagreement between bulls and bears is being priced.^6,4³