US Gas Slips Toward $3.13 as Domestic Supply Signals Override Hormuz Premium

US Gas Slips Toward $3.13 as Domestic Supply Signals Override Hormuz Premium Henry Hub eased below recent levels on signs of ample US production even as a Qatari outage keeps roughly a fifth of global LNG offline. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas traded at $3.13 on Monday (2026-06-08), down 0.32% on the session, as signs of larger US domestic supplies pulled prices lower despite a global LNG shortfall that has kept European and Asian gas trading far above American levels.² That divergence matters because it splits the world gas market into two stories. US supply is the bearish one for traders at the Henry Hub. The Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28 cut almost 20% of global LNG supply, and Asian and European prices surged in March to their highest since the 2022/23 gas crisis.^6,7 American gas never followed them up. The damage centred on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, which handles roughly 20% of global LNG supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility is still running at reduced capacity after the strikes earlier this year, according to FXEmpire.² Elenger's Q1 review put it more starkly: about 17% of Qatar's LNG is expected to be offline for three to five years following the military damage.⁴ That is not a quick repair, and it reshapes the supply picture well beyond this injection season. For US producers, the shock arrived as a price signal rather than a physical one. LNG futures for delivery to the Title Transfer Facility, the European benchmark, climbed to $14.80 per million British thermal units after the Hormuz closure, EIA data show.⁶ On May 14 (2026-05-14), the ICE Endex TTF front-month traded up more than 11% at around 61 euros per megawatt-hour, while US natural gas was last seen 1.7% higher at $3.116.³ The gap is the whole point. Why didn't American prices follow? Domestic fundamentals have been doing their own thing. The June futures contract broke its 50-day moving average as summer heat forecasts firmed, FXEmpire reported, the first clean technical signal that buyers were willing to lift offers.² Feedgas flows to US export terminals matter here, but the follow-through depends on whether the weather verifies and the storage trend keeps tightening. Demand is rising on the power side. The Edison Electric Institute reported US electricity generation up 2.2% year-over-year in its latest weekly reading, with total generation over the past year up 1.8%.² That underpins gas burn into the summer. Still, the signs of larger domestic supplies have been enough to cap the front-month near $3.13 rather than let it chase the international panic.² Europe is the more exposed market. Around 25% of Europe's total gas supply is LNG, according to Chris Wheaton, oil and gas analyst at Stifel.⁵ With Asian demand competing for the same diminished pool of cargoes and EU buyers trying to refill storage, market participants told Montel on May 18 (2026-05-18) that Europe is underestimating the risk of a prolonged Hormuz closure.¹ TTF traded at €49.78 on Monday (2026-06-08), up 0.34%, well below the March spike levels but still elevated against the US.¹ There is a counter-current. Seb Kennedy, independent energy analyst at Energy Flux, attributed part of the price easing from the March highs to demand destruction in Asian countries, which has taken some pressure off the global pool.¹ Signals on TTF and JKM lean bearish on macro grounds, and the bearish case at Henry Hub rests on supply. JKM spot sat at $18.77 on Monday (2026-06-08), still a multiple of the US price.¹ The oil market offers a reminder of how fast Hormuz headlines move prices. On May 14 (2026-05-14), Brent briefly climbed above $119 a barrel before reversing to end at $108.65, up 1.18%, after Israel said it was helping reopen the passageway.³ By Monday (2026-06-08), ICE Brent front-month was back at $94.01, down 0.67%.³ The premium deflates when the chokepoint headlines soften. For now the trade is the spread, not the flat price. US gas stays anchored to domestic storage, weather and export pull, while TTF and JKM carry the geopolitical risk premium from a Qatari outage measured in years, not weeks.^4,2 Watch whether US feedgas to export terminals climbs into the gap, and whether the 50-day breakout holds or gives way back toward the $2.787 level FXEmpire flagged as the next support.²