India's gas-power plants quadruple spot purchases as Iran war starves long-term LNG

India's gas-power plants quadruple spot purchases as Iran war starves long-term LNG Spot gas bought by Indian generators jumped 336.5% in seven weeks as war-hit long-term cargoes dried up, even as plants ran at near-record-low load. Indian power-sector entities bought 44,67,850 million MMBtu of natural gas on the spot market between 1 April and 26 May, a 336.5% jump on the same stretch of 2025, the Indian Express reported on Saturday (2026-06-06).⁶ That is more than double the 2024 volume and close to 140 times the level of 2023. The buying surge traces directly to the war involving Iran, which has choked the long-term LNG cargoes Indian generators normally lean on.⁶ That matters because it shows how a Middle East supply shock is now reaching deep into Asian power systems, forcing utilities to chase scarce, expensive spot molecules.⁶ Disruption at one chokepoint is being paid for at thousands of power plants downstream. The monthly detail is sharper still. In April, power companies bought 15,67,950 MMBtu, up 260.5% from 435,000 MMBtu a year earlier.⁶ From 1 May to 26 May the figure climbed to 28,99,900 MMBtu, against 5,88,550 MMBtu in the same window last year, a near five-fold rise of 392.7%.⁶ The trajectory is accelerating, not stabilising. Yet the plants themselves are barely running. The Plant Load Factor for India's 16 GW of gas-grid-connected capacity stood at just 11% in April, down from 15.3% a year earlier.⁶ Utilities are paying up for spot gas and still generating less, a sign that price, not appetite, is the binding constraint. The domestic shortfall explains the scramble. Although 30.18 MMSCMD of domestic gas was allotted to that 16 GW fleet, actual April supply was only 4.33 MMSCMD.⁶ India typically leans on roughly 10 GW of gas-fired capacity during peak summer, so a gap of that size has to be filled somehow.⁶ Spot LNG became the fill of last resort. The trigger sits in the Gulf. Iranian retaliation to U.S.-Israeli strikes has disrupted around 17% of LNG export capacity in Qatar, the world's second-largest supplier, according to market data cited by Kyodo.⁴ One assessment put damage to Qatari liquefaction at about 12.8 million tonnes a year of lost supply, with recovery timelines stretching up to five years, and pegged the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz at nearly 20% of global LNG flows.³ Consultancies have collectively trimmed global LNG supply projections by as much as 35 million tonnes.³ Asian spot prices moved accordingly. LNG into Asia surged past $25/mmBtu, a roughly 143% gain on the assessment cited, hammering price-sensitive buyers across the region.³ In April 2025, Indian gas plants had met close to 38% of their LNG needs through long-term import contracts alongside spot purchases.⁶ With those contracted volumes hit by the war, the balance has tipped hard toward a market that is both scarcer and dearer. The same shock is rerouting fuel choices elsewhere. Japan and South Korea, two of the largest LNG importers, raised coal-fired generation in April and early May as cargoes thinned and prices climbed.⁴ ICIS senior gas analyst Fei Xu said Japan's extra coal burn displaced roughly four LNG cargoes in April, about half the annual import reduction the government had expected from restarting reactors.⁴ A Vietnamese heatwave pushed coal generation up 12.3% to a record 17,864 gigawatt-hours.⁴ Europe felt the volatility through the screen rather than the grid. The EEX reported "extraordinary" spikes in power and gas trading volumes around the war, including a 62% jump in gas derivatives turnover, on Wednesday (2026-05-20).¹ Total traded volume reached 1,721 TWh as desks hedged and repositioned.¹ Not everyone is positioned for prices to keep climbing. Contrarian signals on the JKM spot benchmark lean bearish, driven by supply, and one regional read on Asian LNG had spot firming only on renewed buying interest while European and US benchmarks softened on milder weather and stronger supply.² The bullish consensus is heavy, but it is not unanimous, and the divergence sits squarely on how fast Qatari supply returns. For now the question is duration. Analysts expect continued upward pressure if LNG shortages persist, even with prices well below the post-2022 records.⁵ The signal to watch is Indian spot volume into June, set against any sign of Qatari capacity coming back, because the longer contracted cargoes stay disrupted, the more a country that barely runs its gas plants will keep paying top dollar to import the fuel for them.⁶